OAK vs SD prediction for May 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 2.8 - OAK 3.5. OAK is favored with a 51.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.3 total runs.
SD
2.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
OAK
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDOAK
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.5% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
245
SD
135
Projected
SD 2.8 — OAK 3.5
Actual
SD 2 — OAK 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
J.T. Ginn R
OAK
SI37%94 mph20% whiff
FC18%92 mph15% whiff
SL17%86 mph28% whiff
Lucas Giolito R
SD
FF48%93 mph15% whiff
SL25%86 mph29% whiff
CH23%82 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
65°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.987 Total: 0.991
5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
4.34ERA
3.84FIP
9.10K/9
4.31BB/9
1.44WHIP
SD
3.36ERA
3.55FIP
8.22K/9
3.46BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-45.5% EV
-169
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-40.9% EV
-108
F5 UNDER 4.5
+22.6% EV
-120
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+21.5% EV
-112
F5_ML HOME
-9.6% EV
+114
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-8.3% EV
+140
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
1.9 runs
45.5% win
SD F5
1.4 runs
32.5% win
F5 Total
3.3
NRFI
64.0%
YRFI
36.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.67
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.3
Over 0.5 HR
72%
Over 1.5 HR
36%
No HR
28%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
J.T. Ginn
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Lucas Giolito
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
OAK6 injured
Denzel Clarke CF10-DAY-IL
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
Brooks Kriske RP15-DAY-IL
Wei-En Lin PDAY-TO-DAY
SD8 injured
Jackson Merrill CFDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Luis Campusano C10-DAY-IL
Jhony Brito RP60-DAY-IL
Yu Darvish SPOUT
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
UNDER 8.0 shows 21.5% edge (64.3% model prob) — HIGH edge on totals market which is DISABLED. Model projects 6.26 total vs market 8.0 line, a 1.74-run swing. Pitcher matchup: J.T. Ginn (B-, 3.22 ERA, elite) away vs Lucas Giolito (B-, 5.83 ERA, weak) home. Away has PITCHER ADVANTAGE. Petco Park -9% suppression + 5 mph wind in (coastal) = massive under environment. HOWEVER, TOTAL market disabled in calibration. Cannot BET totals. Recommend SKIP due to market disability.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch EXTREME FOR away: Ginn (3.22 ERA, B-, elite) vs Giolito (5.83 ERA, B-, weak). 2.61-run ERA gap massive.
- Petco Park -9% (0.9 factor) is MOST suppressive park in MLB
- Wind -5 mph IN (blowing toward pitcher) = compressed fly balls, fewer HR
- Model total 6.26 vs market 8.0 = 1.74-run edge to UNDER
Risk Factors
- TOTAL market disabled: Calibration does NOT trust 21.5% edges on totals. Do NOT bet despite fundamentals.
- High edge + high prob (64.3% model) = worst-case scenario historically (38% WR on high-edge bets)
- Ginn's elite pitching could be noise — small sample size (3.22 ERA)
TOTAL MARKET DISABLEDHIGH EDGE WARNINGPITCHER MISMATCH AWAYPARK FACTORWIND SUPPRESSION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OAK 51.4%
-45.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-45.5 pts
Total
8.0
+21.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →