OAK vs SD prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 3.7 - OAK 4.1. OAK is favored with a 53.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
SD
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
OAK
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDOAK
-1.5
Run Line (SD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.5% (2,282 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
246
SD
246
Projected
SD 3.7 — OAK 4.1
Actual
SD 2 — OAK 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Luis Medina R
OAK
SI35%97 mph10% whiff
FF32%97 mph22% whiff
SL15%88 mph48% whiff
Michael King R
SD
CH27%86 mph31% whiff
SI26%93 mph16% whiff
FF21%94 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
66°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.984 Total: 0.989
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
4.22ERA
3.79FIP
9.10K/9
4.27BB/9
1.42WHIP
SD
3.30ERA
3.52FIP
8.23K/9
3.45BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-28.7% EV
-152
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-25.0% EV
+126
ML AWAY
+23.7% EV
+146
ML HOME
-22.0% EV
-175
F5_ML HOME
-19.2% EV
-172
F5_ML AWAY
+15.4% EV
+136
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
2.2 runs
42.7% win
SD F5
2.0 runs
39.4% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
61.3%
YRFI
38.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.78
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
78%
Over 1.5 HR
45%
No HR
22%
Gavin Sheets SD30.0%
ISO: 0.293 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Luis Medina | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Ty France SD22.4%
ISO: 0.281 | Barrel: 11.6% | vs Luis Medina | Park: 0.90x
Shea Langeliers OAK18.4%
ISO: 0.253 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Michael King | Park: 0.90x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Luis Medina
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Michael King
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
OAK6 injured
Denzel Clarke CF10-DAY-IL
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
Brooks Kriske RP15-DAY-IL
Wei-En Lin PDAY-TO-DAY
SD8 injured
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Luis Campusano C10-DAY-IL
Jhony Brito RP60-DAY-IL
Yu Darvish SPOUT
Blake Hunt CDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE44.5% WR (n=163)
OAK away shows excessive +23.7% edge (model 50.3% vs market 40.7%) — classic case of high-edge away ML falling into RED zone (44.5% WR). Model overconfident. Market likely correct or sharp.
Key Factors
- Luis Medina (OAK away SP) Bayesian ERA: 2.6 (solid), 23.1% K-rate, C+ grade. Above-average
- Michael King (SD home SP) Bayesian ERA: 2.49 (elite), 25.2% K-rate, B- grade. Slightly better
- Pitching nearly identical (2.6 vs 2.49 ERA) — no mismatch. Edge must come from elsewhere.
- PETCO Park suppresses runs (0.9 park factor, -10% runs). Wind 6 mph in = -0.3 runs. Run environment naturally suppressed.
- Model projects 50.3% OAK but market only 40.7% — 9.6% gap is extreme for coin-flip matchup
Risk Factors
- 23.7% edge on 50-50 pitching matchup is unrealistic. Model likely off by 7-10%.
- Away ML is RED zone (40.5% WR on away ML specifically) — betting against this pattern is dangerous
- Market -175 on home favorite suggests sharp money is heavily on SD. Fading this line is contrarian and risky.
RED ZONEHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OAK 53.0%
-25.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-25.0 pts
Total
7.5
+2.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →