OAK vs SF prediction for June 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 4.4 - OAK 5.4. OAK is favored with a 54.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.7 total runs.
SF
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
OAK
5.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFOAK
-1.5
Run Line (SF)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,543 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
357
SF
246
Projected
SF 4.4 — OAK 5.4
Actual
SF 3 — OAK 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Aaron Civale R
OAK
FC36%88 mph22% whiff
CU23%77 mph25% whiff
SI19%91 mph9% whiff
Robbie Ray L
SF
FF42%93 mph17% whiff
SL28%86 mph32% whiff
CH16%86 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
61°F13 mph wind
HR: 0.946 Total: 0.967
12mph in
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
4.87ERA
3.91FIP
9.81K/9
4.20BB/9
1.44WHIP
SF
4.06ERA
4.43FIP
8.10K/9
4.84BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML HOME
-26.6% EV
-141
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-24.1% EV
-179
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-23.6% EV
+146
F5_ML AWAY
+21.0% EV
+112
ML HOME
-16.9% EV
-133
ML AWAY
+13.4% EV
+116
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
3.3 runs
53.0% win
SF F5
2.5 runs
33.5% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
50.9%
YRFI
49.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.12
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
71%
No HR
8%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Aaron Civale
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Robbie Ray
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
OAK7 injured
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
Mark Leiter Jr. RP15-DAY-IL
Wei-En Lin POUT
Brooks Kriske RP60-DAY-IL
Brent Rooker DH10-DAY-IL
Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL
+1 more
SF8 injured
Tyler Mahle SP15-DAY-IL
Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Keaton Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE46.1% WR (n=118)
Model projects 13.4% away ML edge (OAK 52.5% prob) in RED zone (46.1% WR), BUT context matters: Robbie Ray (C+, 0.395, 8.1 K/9, high walk rate) at home (-133 market) is legitimate underdog value vs Aaron Civale (C+, 0.417, command-heavy). Market pricing SF heavy (-133, 57.1% implied) ignores OAK upside. Cold weather (60.8F) + 12mph in wind (0.967 mult) heavily suppress runs — tilts to better pitcher. Ray's 8.1 K/9 outstrikes Civale (6.4 K/9). LEAN OAK away ML despite RED zone caution.
Key Factors
- Oracle Park cold (60.8F) + 12mph in wind (0.967 mult) = -3.3% run suppression — massive deflation
- Ray (C+, 8.1 K/9) outstrikes Civale (C+, 6.4 K/9) — strikeout edge in low-scoring environment
- 13.4% edge is substantial but away RED zone (46.1% WR) warns against overconfidence
- Market -133 SF (57.1% implied) vs model 52.5% OAK = 4.6% gap suggests market respects Civale's command
- Cold wind kills run production; tilts to better strikeout pitcher (Ray)
Risk Factors
- Away ML combo zone is RED (43.1% historical WR) — our worst performing category
- Civale's elite command (0.691 grade) is powerful in low-variance cold environment — suppresses walks
- Model 13.4% edge is attractive but away RED zone historically loses money
RED ZONEWEATHER IMPACTCOLD WEATHERWIND IMPACTPITCHER MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OAK 54.4%
-23.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-23.6 pts
Total
8.5
+0.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →