OAK vs SF prediction for June 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 3.8 - OAK 3.8. SF is favored with a 51.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.5 total runs.
SF
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
OAK
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFOAK
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.2% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
246
SF
246
Projected
SF 3.8 — OAK 3.8
Actual
SF 2 — OAK 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gage Jump L
OAK
FF49%96 mph19% whiff
SL25%88 mph22% whiff
CU12%83 mph30% whiff
Tyler Mahle R
SF
FF48%92 mph16% whiff
FS25%85 mph25% whiff
FC15%88 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
61°F13 mph wind
HR: 0.947 Total: 0.968
12mph in
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
4.87ERA
3.91FIP
9.81K/9
4.20BB/9
1.44WHIP
SF
4.06ERA
4.43FIP
8.10K/9
4.84BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-34.2% EV
-175
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-22.3% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+13.3% EV
-110
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-12.4% EV
+146
ML AWAY
-8.8% EV
-116
F5_ML AWAY
-5.7% EV
-122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
2.1 runs
43.8% win
SF F5
2.0 runs
40.9% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
55.6%
YRFI
44.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.93
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
61%
No HR
13%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Gage Jump
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Tyler Mahle
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
OAK8 injured
Mark Leiter Jr. RP15-DAY-IL
Brent Rooker DH10-DAY-IL
Zack Gelof 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
Wei-En Lin POUT
+2 more
SF8 injured
Luis Arraez 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Keaton Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Mahle SP15-DAY-IL
Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=235)
TOTAL UNDER 8.5 shows 13.3% edge (59.3% model vs 46.0% market). Model projects 7.51 total vs market 8.5 line (-0.99 run gap). Away pitcher Jump (2.56 ERA, B- grade, elite command) significantly outmatches home Mahle (6.52 ERA, poor grades). Conditions perfect for unders: Oracle Park -12% park factor, cold 60.7°F, 12mph wind blowing in (severe headwind), high humidity 84%. All environmental factors align on unders. LEAN TOTAL UNDER with standard units.
Key Factors
- Pitcher elite advantage away: Jump 2.56 ERA (B-, 21.7% K-rate, elite 90th percentile command) vs Mahle 6.52 ERA (weak stuff). ~4 ERA advantage to away.
- Park factor -0.88 (Oracle -12% baseline) amplifies under lean. 0.968 weather multiplier (cold, wind, humidity).
- Weather extreme: 60.7°F (22°F below seasonal), 12mph headwind (severe), 84% humidity (dense). All under signals.
- Model 7.51 vs market 8.5 = -0.99 run gap justified by all factors combined
Risk Factors
- None significant; all factors align on same direction
PITCHER MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SF 51.6%
-34.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-34.2 pts
Total
8.5
+13.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →