OAK vs SF prediction for June 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 4.2 - OAK 4.0. SF is favored with a 53.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
SF
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
OAK
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFOAK
-1.5
Run Line (SF)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.4% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
246
SF
246
Projected
SF 4.2 — OAK 4.0
Actual
SF 6 — OAK 9
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jeffrey Springs L
OAK
FF43%91 mph12% whiff
SL26%84 mph21% whiff
CH23%79 mph41% whiff
Landen Roupp R
SF
SI36%93 mph10% whiff
CU27%77 mph35% whiff
CH20%87 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
62°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.946 Total: 0.967
12mph in
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
4.87ERA
3.91FIP
9.81K/9
4.20BB/9
1.44WHIP
SF
4.06ERA
4.43FIP
8.10K/9
4.84BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-38.0% EV
-189
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-17.1% EV
-118
F5_ML AWAY
-10.8% EV
+112
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-5.7% EV
+155
ML HOME
-5.4% EV
-133
F5 UNDER 4.5
+3.9% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
1.9 runs
34.1% win
SF F5
2.4 runs
48.4% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
59.7%
YRFI
40.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.84
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
79%
Over 1.5 HR
48%
No HR
21%
Bryce Eldridge SF30.0%
ISO: 0.261 | Barrel: 11.6% | vs Jeffrey Springs | Park: 0.88x
Casey Schmitt SF28.6%
ISO: 0.184 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs Jeffrey Springs | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Willy Adames SF27.2%
ISO: 0.155 | Barrel: 9.5% | vs Jeffrey Springs | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jeffrey Springs
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Landen Roupp
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
OAK8 injured
Zack Gelof 3B10-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SSDAY-TO-DAY
Mark Leiter Jr. RP15-DAY-IL
Brent Rooker DH10-DAY-IL
Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SF8 injured
Luis Arraez 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Keaton Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE54.4% WR (n=121)
Market is correctly pricing this low-run environment. Cold weather (61.7°F) + 12mph headwind + Oracle Park's 12% run suppression create neutral value. No model edge to exploit.
Key Factors
- Park factor 0.88: Oracle suppresses runs 12%, multiplier 0.967 cumulative
- Weather: 61.7°F (cold) + 12.5mph in wind (-12.3 tail) = significant run suppression
- Roupp vs Springs: K-rate edge (10.0 vs 7.8) but both young arms with limited sample
- Model total 8.18 vs market 8.0 = 0.18 edge, statistically insignificant
Risk Factors
- Both pitchers have sparse ERA history (listed as N/A in some profile data) — limited sample on reliability
- Cold weather could depress scoring further than model projects, hitting UNDER bettors
WEATHER IMPACTPARK FACTOR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SF 53.8%
-5.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-5.7 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →