FINAL: TEX 8 — OAK 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TEX 3.0 - OAK 2.9 (TEX at 54.0% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 5.9 total runs.
TEX
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
OAK
2.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXOAK
-1.5
Run Line (TEX)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
OAK L5TEX W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.6% (3,658 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
135
TEX
135
Projected
TEX 3.0 — OAK 2.9
Actual
TEX 8 — OAK 5
Pick Results
OAK @ TEX F5 UNDER 3.5f5LOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brady Basso L
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%93 mph14% whiff
SL19%84 mph21% whiff
CU19%78 mph35% whiff
MacKenzie Gore L
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%95 mph21% whiff
CU18%82 mph28% whiff
CH12%86 mph39% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
96°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.049 Total: 1.024
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
5.26ERA
4.42FIP
9.58K/9
4.59BB/9
1.56WHIP
TEX
4.32ERA
4.36FIP
8.60K/9
3.77BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
NRFI YRFI
-22.7% EV
-104
F5_ML AWAY
+20.4% EV
+164
F5_ML HOME
-19.5% EV
-208
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-15.4% EV
+104
F5 UNDER 4.5
+14.6% EV
-147
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+14.2% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
1.6 runs
39.6% win
TEX F5
1.5 runs
37.5% win
F5 Total
3.1
NRFI
65.4%
YRFI
34.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.63
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
78%
Over 1.5 HR
45%
No HR
22%
Max Muncy OAK26.2%
ISO: 0.239 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs MacKenzie Gore | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Corey Seager TEX23.6%
ISO: 0.147 | Barrel: 8.9% | vs Brady Basso | Park: 1.02x
Zack Gelof OAK23.0%
ISO: 0.162 | Barrel: 9.5% | vs MacKenzie Gore | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Brady Basso
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
MacKenzie Gore
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
OAK8 injured
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 3B60-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SS60-DAY-IL
Shea Langeliers C10-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B60-DAY-IL
Tyler Soderstrom LF60-DAY-IL
Justin Sterner RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Cole Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Peyton Gray RP15-DAY-IL
Robert Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Carter Baumler RP60-DAY-IL
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2
A projected 5.89-run total (lowest on the slate) driving a +14.2% UNDER edge is suspicious given 96F heat and near-identical starters — this is another disabled-market overconfidence signal that should be blocked, not played.
Key Factors
- TOTAL market disabled: cannot act on the +14.2% UNDER edge
- Suspiciously low projection: 5.89 runs with 96F heat doesn't add up without a specific driver
- SP near-identical: Gore 4.75 ERA vs Basso 4.86 ERA, 0.11 run gap is noise
- NRFI edge strong (+10.2%) but market is UNPROVEN (1/2 positive windows, 54.5% baseline WR)
- Edge size (14.2%) sits in the historically weak 10-15%+ bucket
Risk Factors
- Model's own run projection appears internally inconsistent with the weather inputs provided
- NRFI signal, while attractive, isn't validated enough to carry a play on its own
- Heat typically inflates scoring; a 5.89 total in these conditions is an outlier worth distrust
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TEX 54.0%
-15.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-15.4 pts
Total
7.5
+14.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.