FINAL: BOS 1 — PHI 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected BOS 3.2 - PHI 3.8 (PHI at 54.5% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.0 total runs.
BOS
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
PHI
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSPHI
+1.5
Run Line (BOS)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
PHIBOS L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
246
BOS
135
Projected
BOS 3.2 — PHI 3.8
Actual
BOS 1 — PHI 2
Pick Results
PHI @ BOS F5 UNDER 4.5f5WIN+0.39u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zack Wheeler R
PHI
FF33%94 mph29% whiff
SI18%94 mph0% whiff
ST16%81 mph36% whiff
Jovani Morán L
BOS
FF41%92 mph16% whiff
CH34%83 mph43% whiff
FC18%84 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
62°F11 mph wind
HR: 0.950 Total: 0.970
11mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.27ERA
3.25FIP
9.96K/9
3.40BB/9
1.37WHIP
BOS
3.88ERA
4.56FIP
8.54K/9
3.84BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-40.6% EV
-147
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-32.3% EV
-115
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-13.5% EV
+122
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+13.4% EV
-105
F5 UNDER 4.5
+10.5% EV
-128
F5_ML AWAY
-9.9% EV
-164
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.0 runs
44.1% win
BOS F5
1.8 runs
36.3% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
61.1%
YRFI
38.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.76
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.4
Over 0.5 HR
76%
Over 1.5 HR
42%
No HR
24%
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Jovani Morán | Park: 1.08x
Bryce Harper PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.219 | Barrel: 16.2% | vs Jovani Morán | Park: 1.08x
Jarren Duran BOS21.2%
ISO: 0.136 | Barrel: 6.5% | vs Zack Wheeler | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Zack Wheeler
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Jovani Morán
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PHI8 injured
Zach Pop RP15-DAY-IL
Keaton Anthony 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Johan Rojas CFSUSPENSION
Kyle Backhus RP15-DAY-IL
Rene Pinto CDAY-TO-DAY
Daniel Robert RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Garrett Crochet SP15-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF10-DAY-IL
Willson Contreras 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Hobie Harris RPDAY-TO-DAY
Triston Casas 1B60-DAY-IL
Brendan Rodgers 2BOUT
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 54.5%
-40.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-40.6 pts
Total
8.0
+13.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →