PHI vs BOS prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 3.2 - PHI 4.0. PHI is favored with a 58.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
BOS
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
PHI
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSPHI
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
246
BOS
135
Projected
BOS 3.2 — PHI 4.0
Actual
BOS 3 — PHI 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andrew Painter R
PHI
FF38%96 mph5% whiff
SL18%88 mph38% whiff
SI13%95 mph7% whiff
Sonny Gray R
BOS
FC23%89 mph12% whiff
SI20%92 mph18% whiff
CU19%80 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
66°F16 mph wind
HR: 0.984 Total: 0.990
5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.23ERA
3.23FIP
10.01K/9
3.42BB/9
1.37WHIP
BOS
3.86ERA
4.59FIP
8.62K/9
3.83BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-40.4% EV
-105
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-29.7% EV
+146
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-27.9% EV
-179
F5_ML HOME
-20.8% EV
-143
ML HOME
-20.1% EV
-130
F5 UNDER 4.5
+18.3% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.1 runs
45.9% win
BOS F5
1.8 runs
35.3% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
57.8%
YRFI
42.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.81
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
82%
Over 1.5 HR
52%
No HR
18%
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.438 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Sonny Gray | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryce Harper PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.312 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Sonny Gray | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Wilyer Abreu BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.196 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs Andrew Painter | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Andrew Painter
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Sonny Gray
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PHI8 injured
Trea Turner SSDAY-TO-DAY
Zach Pop RP15-DAY-IL
Keaton Anthony 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Johan Rojas CFSUSPENSION
Kyle Backhus RP15-DAY-IL
Rene Pinto CDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Garrett Crochet SP15-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF10-DAY-IL
Hobie Harris RPDAY-TO-DAY
Triston Casas 1B60-DAY-IL
Brendan Rodgers 2BOUT
Romy Gonzalez 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2RED ZONE45.6% WR (n=148)
Andrew Painter (7.44 ERA, C+ grade, mediocre command at 0.504) is a back-end starter facing Sonny Gray (3.82 ERA, C+ grade but better command at 0.624); model projects 54.8% PHI away win probability at +15.2% edge, with supporting F5 AWAY +14.3% and UNDER 9.0 at +16.8%. This is a classic underdog value spot where away team has the better arm — HIGH CONVICTION BET on PHI ML.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch: Painter 7.44 ERA (C+, 0.364 overall grade, mediocre command) vs Gray 3.82 ERA (C+, better 0.624 command)
- Away ML edge: +15.2% (model 54.8% vs market 47.6% on PHI); underdog has superior arm
- UNDER 9.0 edge: +16.8% (model 62.4% under prob vs market 38%); massive scoring gap projected
- F5 AWAY: +14.3% edge (53.4% model prob); early inning advantage to away starter
- Market over-weighting home field; pitcher gap should override traditional home advantage in this matchup
Risk Factors
- Away ML in RED zone (45.6% WR), caution signal — but edge is so large (+15.2%) that should override
- Gray's 3.82 ERA is respectable but not elite; Painter's 7.44 is truly bad — pitcher gap is real
- Fenway park factor 1.08 inflates scoring; UNDER at +16.8% edge seems almost too good
PITCHER MISMATCHAWAY VALUEUNDERDOGMULTIPLE EDGESSTRONG CONVICTION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 58.0%
-29.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-29.7 pts
Total
9.0
+16.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →