PHI vs BOS prediction for May 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 2.9 - PHI 3.0. PHI is favored with a 50.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 5.9 total runs.
BOS
2.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
PHI
3.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSPHI
+1.5
Run Line (BOS)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.5% (2,063 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
135
BOS
135
Projected
BOS 2.9 — PHI 3.0
Actual
BOS 1 — PHI 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jesús Luzardo L
PHI
ST36%86 mph50% whiff
FF25%97 mph15% whiff
CH22%86 mph41% whiff
Ranger Suarez L
BOS
SI27%90 mph12% whiff
FC21%88 mph15% whiff
CH19%81 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
55°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.039 Total: 1.022
6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.27ERA
3.26FIP
10.05K/9
3.35BB/9
1.37WHIP
BOS
3.79ERA
4.55FIP
8.68K/9
3.87BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-42.4% EV
-213
TOTAL OVER 7.0
-37.3% EV
-112
F5 UNDER 3.5
+14.2% EV
-114
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
+12.1% EV
-108
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-9.7% EV
+176
F5_ML AWAY
-8.7% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
1.5 runs
36.6% win
BOS F5
1.5 runs
38.6% win
F5 Total
3.0
NRFI
68.8%
YRFI
31.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.56
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.1
Over 0.5 HR
68%
Over 1.5 HR
31%
No HR
32%
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS28.7%
ISO: 0.345 | Barrel: 7.4% | vs Jesús Luzardo | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Kyle Schwarber PHI26.1%
ISO: 0.295 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Ranger Suarez | Park: 1.08x
Bryce Harper PHI13.1%
ISO: 0.207 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs Ranger Suarez | Park: 1.08x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jesús Luzardo
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Ranger Suarez
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PHI8 injured
Kyle Backhus RP15-DAY-IL
Trea Turner SSDAY-TO-DAY
Zach Pop RP15-DAY-IL
Keaton Anthony 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Johan Rojas CFSUSPENSION
Rene Pinto CDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Garrett Crochet SP15-DAY-IL
Connor Wong CDAY-TO-DAY
Roman Anthony LF10-DAY-IL
Hobie Harris RPDAY-TO-DAY
Triston Casas 1B60-DAY-IL
Brendan Rodgers 2BOUT
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE50.4% WR (n=250)
Even ML matchup (50.0% each); primary edge is UNDER 7.0 at 12.1% (F5 UNDER 3.5 at 14.2%). Cold weather (55.1F) + wind OUT boosts HRs but suppresses other runs. Game in RAIN DELAY — if resumes, UNDER is actionable with F5 focus.
Key Factors
- Pitcher comparison: Suarez 2.99 ERA (21.1% K, C+ stuff) vs Luzardo 6.23 ERA (29.3% K, B+ stuff). Luzardo has elite K-rate despite high ERA, suggesting stuff advantage but recent control issues.
- Model calls even ML (50.0% each) — market -117 BOS = 54% (agrees model, slight BOS lean). No meaningful ML edge.
- UNDER 7.0 edge 12.1% strong — model 5.94 vs market 7.0, 1.06 run gap. This in acceptable zone.
- F5 UNDER 3.5 at 14.2% elite — early innings dominated by K-pitchers (Luzardo 29.3% K threat), fewer hits = fewer runs.
- NRFI edge 4.4% weak — supports under theme but insufficient alone.
Risk Factors
- Rain delay means game not started — weather could worsen, postponement possible. Any analysis assumes game resumes.
- Luzardo's 6.23 ERA high; if his recent control issues surface, overs closer despite K-rate.
- Fenway wind OUT (6.1 mph) boosts HRs 1.039x, potentially inflating runs vs model if lineup connects.
RAIN DELAYEVEN MLUNDER EDGEF5 UNDER ELITECOLD WEATHERCONDITIONAL ON RESUME
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 50.0%
-42.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-42.4 pts
Total
7.0
+12.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →