FINAL: CHC 7 — PHI 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CHC 3.9 - PHI 3.7 (CHC at 53.1% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
CHC
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
PHI
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCPHI
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
246
CHC
246
Projected
CHC 3.9 — PHI 3.7
Actual
CHC 7 — PHI 4
Pick Results
CHC MLmlWIN+0.85u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jesús Luzardo L
PHI
ST36%86 mph52% whiff
SI23%96 mph11% whiff
FF22%97 mph20% whiff
Shota Imanaga L
CHC
FF42%92 mph19% whiff
FS34%84 mph42% whiff
ST15%83 mph43% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
63°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.015 Total: 1.006
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.19ERA
3.07FIP
10.01K/9
3.06BB/9
1.27WHIP
CHC
3.36ERA
4.44FIP
7.91K/9
3.51BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-39.0% EV
-200
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-23.2% EV
-120
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+17.4% EV
-102
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-6.2% EV
+162
F5_ML HOME
-6.1% EV
-128
F5 UNDER 4.5
+4.4% EV
-132
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.0 runs
39.6% win
CHC F5
2.1 runs
42.2% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
57.7%
YRFI
42.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.84
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
12%
Bryce Harper PHI26.2%
ISO: 0.229 | Barrel: 11.9% | vs Shota Imanaga | Park: 1.03x
Dansby Swanson CHC26.1%
ISO: 0.261 | Barrel: 12.6% | vs Jesús Luzardo | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Ian Happ CHC17.2%
ISO: 0.276 | Barrel: 16.2% | vs Jesús Luzardo | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jesús Luzardo
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Shota Imanaga
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PHI8 injured
J.T. Realmuto CDAY-TO-DAY
Zack Wheeler SP15-DAY-IL
Jhoan Duran RP15-DAY-IL
Zach Pop RP15-DAY-IL
Jonathan Bowlan RP15-DAY-IL
Max Lazar RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Jaxon Wiggins SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jordan Wicks RP15-DAY-IL
Cade Horton SP60-DAY-IL
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Palencia RP15-DAY-IL
Porter Hodge RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALGREEN ZONE66.2% WR (n=24)
Nearly coin-flip directional game (53.1% home). Shota Imanaga (CHC, 2.65 ERA, B+ grade, 34.3% K) faces Jesús Luzardo (PHI, 8.58 ERA, terrible). Large pitcher advantage CHC but model only gives 3.7% edge, suggesting market correctly prices gap.
Key Factors
- Shota Imanaga (CHC, 2.65 ERA, B+ grade, 33.8% K rate) elite vs Jesús Luzardo (PHI, 8.58 ERA, B+ grade stuff but 7+ ERA = disaster)
- 4-run ERA gap (8.58 - 2.65) = massive, but market only gives CHC -126 (55.9% implied) vs model 53.8%
- Market implies 55.9% CHC, model 53.8% — market RESPECTING pitcher gap MORE than model. Reverse value.
- UNDER 8.5 edge only 17.4% in lower tier (GREEN zone history unknown, but total over stronger 57.4% WR than under)
Risk Factors
- Despite pitcher mismatch, model underweights vs market — implies market correct on pricing
- Coin-flip directional confidence (53% home) suggests no edge
- Luzardo elite stuff (B+ grade) but ERA disaster — control/execution issue, not talent
PITCHER MISMATCHMARKET EFFICIENCY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 53.1%
-6.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-6.2 pts
Total
8.5
+17.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →