FINAL: CHC 8 — PHI 7. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CHC 4.5 - PHI 3.8 (CHC at 57.9% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.3 total runs.
CHC
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
PHI
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCPHI
+1.5
Run Line (CHC)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
246
CHC
346
Projected
CHC 4.5 — PHI 3.8
Actual
CHC 8 — PHI 7
Pick Results
CHC MLmlWIN+1.56u
Felix Reyes OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsLOSS-2.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cristopher Sánchez L
PHI
SI46%95 mph10% whiff
CH33%86 mph50% whiff
SL21%86 mph35% whiff
Edward Cabrera R
CHC
CH35%93 mph28% whiff
FF19%96 mph18% whiff
SI18%96 mph3% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
78°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.041 Total: 1.021
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.66ERA
3.42FIP
10.13K/9
3.45BB/9
1.36WHIP
CHC
3.31ERA
4.31FIP
8.33K/9
3.36BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-28.3% EV
-122
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-27.1% EV
+130
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-23.8% EV
-156
ML AWAY
-17.5% EV
-122
ML HOME
+13.6% EV
+104
F5_ML AWAY
-11.6% EV
-141
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.2 runs
41.1% win
CHC F5
2.3 runs
42.0% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
56.8%
YRFI
43.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.85
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
66%
No HR
10%
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.523 | Barrel: 18.5% | vs Edward Cabrera | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryce Harper PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.234 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Edward Cabrera | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Dansby Swanson CHC26.1%
ISO: 0.240 | Barrel: 11.8% | vs Cristopher Sánchez | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Cristopher Sánchez
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Edward Cabrera
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PHI8 injured
J.T. Realmuto C10-DAY-IL
Max Lazar RP60-DAY-IL
Jonathan Bowlan RP15-DAY-IL
Jose Alvarado RPDAY-TO-DAY
Zack Wheeler SP15-DAY-IL
Jhoan Duran RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Porter Hodge RP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP15-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Palencia RP15-DAY-IL
Jaxon Wiggins SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jordan Wicks RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE0.6% WR (n=19)
Model correctly identified CHC as slight favorite (57.9%) despite PHI's starting pitcher advantage (Sánchez 1.72 ERA ace vs Cabrera 2.57 ERA), driven by home-field value in GREEN zone (home underdogs 5-10% edge historically 63.2% WR). Home park factor and bullpen resilience drove correct directional call, though stated mechanism (pitcher advantage) was wrong.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality FAVORS PHI: Sánchez (PHI, 1.72 ERA, B+, 30.9% K/9) vs Cabrera (CHC, 2.57 ERA, C+, 16.8% K/9) — 0.85 ERA gap, 14.1 K/9 gap favors away ace
- Park factor +1.03 inflates CHC runs; dense air (1485 ft density altitude) + tail wind +0.6 = ~+0.5 runs to total
- Home underdog +104 ML in GREEN zone: 55.7% model prob vs 49% implied = 6.7% edge in 5-10% bucket (63.2% historical WR)
- Actual result CHC 8-7 OT confirms home underdog value call, despite PHI ace (Sánchez) on mound
Risk Factors
- Model favors home despite worse starting pitcher — requires park factor + bullpen depth to justify, both present but fragile
- Bullpen fatigue risk: CHC missing Maton, Harvey, Wicks — relief depth tested in 10-inning game (held up, but close)
- Overreliance on park factor: Wrigley's +1.03 multiplier is real but not sufficient alone to override pitcher disadvantage
PITCHER MISMATCHGREEN ZONEHOME UNDERDOG VALUEPARK FACTORRESULT FINAL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 57.9%
-23.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-23.8 pts
Total
9.0
+9.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →