PHI vs LAD prediction for May 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAD 5.1 - PHI 4.2. LAD is favored with a 59.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.3 total runs.
LAD
5.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
PHI
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADPHI
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.7% (2,440 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
246
LAD
357
Projected
LAD 5.1 — PHI 4.2
Actual
LAD 9 — PHI 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andrew Painter R
PHI
FF36%96 mph6% whiff
SL20%88 mph36% whiff
FS13%87 mph36% whiff
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R
LAD
FS28%91 mph37% whiff
FF26%96 mph22% whiff
FC15%91 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
81°F10 mph wind
HR: 0.986 Total: 0.989
thin air, 10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.39ERA
3.36FIP
10.37K/9
3.28BB/9
1.35WHIP
LAD
2.76ERA
2.98FIP
9.79K/9
3.58BB/9
1.10WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-35.3% EV
-105
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-15.1% EV
-114
ML AWAY
+13.8% EV
+194
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-13.2% EV
-104
F5_ML HOME
-12.5% EV
-238
ML HOME
-12.4% EV
-233
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.2 runs
34.5% win
LAD F5
3.0 runs
50.9% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
52.0%
YRFI
48.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.01
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
72%
No HR
9%
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.392 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryce Harper PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.315 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Dalton Rushing LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.302 | Barrel: 16.2% | vs Andrew Painter | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Andrew Painter
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PHI8 injured
Aaron Nola SPPATERNITY
Carson DeMartini SSDAY-TO-DAY
Bryan Rincon SSDAY-TO-DAY
Kyle Backhus RP15-DAY-IL
Keaton Anthony 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Johan Rojas CFSUSPENSION
+2 more
LAD8 injured
Brock Stewart RP15-DAY-IL
Tommy Edman 2B60-DAY-IL
Tyler Glasnow SP15-DAY-IL
Teoscar Hernandez LF10-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP60-DAY-IL
Jack Dreyer RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
PHI away shows 13.8% edge on ML (model 38.7%, market 34.0%) but RED zone away (43.6% WR). Market -232 LAD (69.9% implied) prices in Yoshinobu Yamamoto (B-grade, 24.9% K, 2.49 ERA peak) >> Andrew Painter (C+, 7.2 K/9). J.T. Realmuto HBP complicates PHI. Avoid RED zone underdog despite edge.
Key Factors
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD, B-grade, 24.9% K, strong command B+, 2.49 implied ERA) vs Andrew Painter (PHI, C+, 7.2 K/9, lower stuff) — LAD pitcher better
- Market -232 (69.9% implied) vs model 38.7% away — PHI underdogged, edge exists but zone RED
- Dodger Stadium (wind 10.1 mph IN, depresses scoring, park 0.92) — suppressesOVERs
- Realmuto wrist contusion (May 31 HBP) may impact today's availability/performance
Risk Factors
- RED zone away 43.6% WR — historically money pit
- 13.8% edge on RED zone away = poorest historical performance (38% WR)
- Realmuto injury unclear if impacts today's game (contusion severity unknown)
RED ZONE AWAYINJURY IMPACT RECENTMODEL MARKET CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 59.7%
-15.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-15.1 pts
Total
9.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →