PHI vs MIA prediction for May 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 3.6 - PHI 3.1. MIA is favored with a 57.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.7 total runs.
MIA
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
PHI
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIAPHI
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
PHIMIA L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.4% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
135
MIA
246
Projected
MIA 3.6 — PHI 3.1
Actual
MIA 2 — PHI 7
Pick Results
Bryson Stott OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jesús Luzardo L
PHI
ST36%86 mph51% whiff
FF24%97 mph18% whiff
CH20%87 mph38% whiff
Chris Paddack R
MIA
FF31%93 mph18% whiff
CH25%85 mph29% whiff
FC13%86 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
81°F5 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.002 Total: 0.999
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.26ERA
3.35FIP
9.78K/9
3.59BB/9
1.43WHIP
MIA
4.03ERA
3.88FIP
10.30K/9
5.32BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-36.4% EV
-120
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-33.3% EV
+116
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-27.0% EV
-141
ML AWAY
-21.7% EV
-145
F5_ML AWAY
-21.3% EV
-164
ML HOME
+19.2% EV
+122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
1.7 runs
36.2% win
MIA F5
2.0 runs
43.5% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
62.6%
YRFI
37.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.71
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
59%
No HR
15%
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.448 | Barrel: 19.8% | vs Chris Paddack | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Brandon Marsh PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.223 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Chris Paddack | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryce Harper PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.211 | Barrel: 11.2% | vs Chris Paddack | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jesús Luzardo
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Chris Paddack
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PHI8 injured
Justin Crawford CFDAY-TO-DAY
Jhoan Duran RP15-DAY-IL
Christian McGowan RPDAY-TO-DAY
Rene Pinto CDAY-TO-DAY
Max Lazar RP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Backhus RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA6 injured
Owen Caissie RFDAY-TO-DAY
Pete Fairbanks RP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Conine LF10-DAY-IL
Adam Mazur SP60-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Jesus Tinoco RPOUT
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE55.7% WR (n=134)
MIA home ML at +122 has 19.2% edge (53.7% model prob vs 45% market). Chris Paddack (6.6 ERA, weak) loses to Jesús Luzardo (5.94 ERA, B stuff), but home field + warm weather (80.6°F, retractable roof closed) + park effect favors MIA. GREEN ZONE home ML (55.7% WR).
Key Factors
- Chris Paddack 6.6 ERA, 20.6% K rate, weak stuff (C+ grade)—road SP with poor command
- Jesús Luzardo 5.94 ERA, 27.6% K rate, B stuff—better fastball than Paddack but still mediocre
- MIA home field: Paddack road ERA is typically inflated; neutral dome conditions eliminate wind/weather variance
- Warm (80.6°F) retractable roof closed = stable, neutral total conditions (+0.999x mult). Model total 6.72 vs market 8.0 = 1.28 run edge to unders, but primary lean is MIA ML.
Risk Factors
- High edge (19.2%) falls into risky territory—edges >15% have only 33.3% WR. BUT this is GREEN ZONE home play (55.7% WR), which mitigates risk.
- PHI has Kyle Schwarber (30% HR prob), Brandon Marsh (30% HR prob), Bryce Harper (30% HR prob)—dangerous lineup despite Paddack's poor ERA
PITCHER MISMATCHGREEN ZONEML VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 57.3%
-27.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-27.0 pts
Total
8.0
+18.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →