PHI vs MIA prediction for May 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 4.0 - PHI 3.1. MIA is favored with a 60.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.1 total runs.
MIA
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
PHI
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIAPHI
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
PHIMIA L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
135
MIA
246
Projected
MIA 4.0 — PHI 3.1
Actual
MIA 0 — PHI 1
Pick Results
Otto Lopez OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksLOSS-1.00u
Graham Pauley OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Aaron Nola R
PHI
KC30%78 mph37% whiff
FF28%92 mph20% whiff
SI19%91 mph10% whiff
Janson Junk R
MIA
FF31%94 mph14% whiff
SL24%86 mph16% whiff
CH18%87 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
79°F13 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.066 Total: 1.036
7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.18ERA
3.34FIP
9.60K/9
3.52BB/9
1.41WHIP
MIA
3.79ERA
3.74FIP
10.08K/9
5.00BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-30.1% EV
-110
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-28.8% EV
+155
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-28.5% EV
-189
F5_ML AWAY
-21.4% EV
-112
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+21.1% EV
-110
ML AWAY
-18.3% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
1.6 runs
31.3% win
MIA F5
2.3 runs
49.4% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
59.5%
YRFI
40.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.81
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
61%
No HR
13%
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.428 | Barrel: 19.2% | vs Janson Junk | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryce Harper PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.216 | Barrel: 11.2% | vs Janson Junk | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Liam Hicks MIA30.0%
ISO: 0.308 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Aaron Nola | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Aaron Nola
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Janson Junk
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PHI8 injured
Jhoan Duran RP15-DAY-IL
Christian McGowan RPDAY-TO-DAY
Rene Pinto CDAY-TO-DAY
Max Lazar RP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Backhus RP15-DAY-IL
Zach Pop RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA5 injured
Pete Fairbanks RP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Conine LF10-DAY-IL
Adam Mazur SP60-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Jesus Tinoco RPOUT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 60.4%
-28.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-28.5 pts
Total
8.5
+21.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →