Who is predicted to win PHI vs MIL on June 13, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, MIL is favored with a 59.2% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is MIL 6.4 - PHI 5.2.

How did PHI vs MIL on June 13, 2026 end?

Final score: MIL 8 - PHI 9. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

PHI vs MIL Prediction & Picks — June 13, 2026

PHI vs MIL prediction for June 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 6.4 - PHI 5.2. MIL is favored with a 59.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.7 total runs.

MIL

6.4

Projected Score

VS O/U 8.5

PHI

5.2

Projected Score

Win Probability

59.2%

40.8%

MILPHI

-1.5

Run Line (MIL)

8.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.2% (2,321 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

PHI

357

MIL

468

Projected

MIL 6.4 — PHI 5.2

Actual

MIL 8 — PHI 9

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Aaron Nola R

PHI

KC34%78 mph37% whiff

FF25%92 mph14% whiff

SI19%91 mph10% whiff

Shane Drohan L

MIL

FF28%95 mph28% whiff

SI20%95 mph10% whiff

SL18%86 mph33% whiff

Weather Impact

American Family Field

83°F13 mph windRoof: retractable

HR: 0.979 Total: 0.985

thin air, 13mph in

Bullpen Comparison

PHI

4.18ERA

3.23FIP

10.40K/9

3.24BB/9

1.34WHIP

MIL

3.72ERA

3.58FIP

9.23K/9

3.92BB/9

1.32WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5

-41.2% EV

-154

TOTAL UNDER 8.5

-29.0% EV

-112

F5 OVER 4.5

+20.7% EV

-120

TOTAL OVER 8.5

+20.5% EV

-108

F5_ML AWAY

-10.3% EV

+120

RUN_LINE HOME -1.5

+5.4% EV

+128

First 5 Innings & NRFI

PHI F5

2.9 runs

35.7% win

MIL F5

3.8 runs

53.3% win

F5 Total

6.8

NRFI

44.7%

YRFI

55.3%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

1.37

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

3.3

Over 0.5 HR

96%

Over 1.5 HR

83%

No HR

Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%

ISO: 0.337 | Barrel: 19.1% | vs Shane Drohan

Jake Bauers MIL30.0%

ISO: 0.272 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Aaron Nola | Platoon: 1.12x

Bryce Harper PHI26.7%

ISO: 0.146 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Shane Drohan

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Aaron Nola

0.0 K projected

PHI | K/9: 0.0

Shane Drohan

0.0 K projected

MIL | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

PHI8 injured

Steward Berroa RFPATERNITY

Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL

Johan Rojas CFOUT

Kyle Backhus RP15-DAY-IL

Andrew Walling RPDAY-TO-DAY

Carson DeMartini SSDAY-TO-DAY

+2 more

MIL8 injured

Coleman Crow SP15-DAY-IL

Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL

Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL

Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL

Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL

DL Hall RP15-DAY-IL

+2 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=184)

OVER 8.5 at 20.5% edge is massive but grounded in elite pitcher mismatch (Shane Drohan 3.36 ERA B-grade vs Aaron Nola 6.33 ERA basement-tier F grade). Run-heavy environment (model total 11.65) is supported by hot weather (83F), retractable roof (neutral), and Nola's historically poor performance. Deploy cautiously (1.0 unit) despite HIGH_EDGE due to pitcher-driven fundamentals.

Key Factors

SP QUALITY DRAMATICALLY FAVORS HOME: Shane Drohan (MIL home) 3.36 ERA (B-grade, 24% K-rate) vs Aaron Nola (PHI away) 6.33 ERA (worst on slate, 23.4% K-rate but high BB rate). 2.97 ERA gap is MASSIVE—second-largest gap only to ATL-NYM (Pérez 3.26 vs Manaea 5.42).
Aaron Nola 6.33 ERA is historically terrible; this is not small-sample variance but sustained poor performance
Model 11.65 total vs market 8.5 = 3.15 RUN GAP (extraordinary for baseball; normal is 0.3-0.6). This gap MUST be driven by pitcher quality (Nola weakness) not weather or ballpark.
Temperature 83F, 12.7 mph wind blowing in = actually REDUCES over expectations by ~0.3 runs, but pitcher gap more than compensates
Retractable roof at American Family Field (closed) = neutral baseline

Risk Factors

20.5% edge is second-highest on slate (after ATL-NYM 21%); historically YELLOW zone totals only 50.1% WR baseline. This is a condition that should reduce confidence by 25-50%.
Nola 6.33 ERA could be tail-end of recent decline; if he pitches to recent form (4.5-5.0), edge compresses significantly
MIL lineup has injuries (Brandon Lockridge LF on IL, various RP issues); run production capped vs expectations

Sharp MoneyWith ModelPublic likely underweighting Nola weakness; sharp backing over heavily. Line may have tightened from opening given sharp action on Nola poor form.

PITCHER MISMATCHHIGH EDGE WARNINGWEATHER IMPACTTOTALS VALUE

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

MIL 59.2%

+5.4 pts

Run Line