PHI vs MIL prediction for June 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 4.1 - PHI 4.1. MIL is favored with a 51.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 6.5. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
MIL
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
PHI
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILPHI
+1.5
Run Line (MIL)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.4% (2,331 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
246
MIL
246
Projected
MIL 4.1 — PHI 4.1
Actual
MIL 4 — PHI 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cristopher Sánchez L
PHI
SI43%95 mph11% whiff
CH38%87 mph45% whiff
SL18%86 mph38% whiff
Kyle Harrison L
MIL
FF59%95 mph29% whiff
SV29%82 mph29% whiff
CH10%86 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
70°F16 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.980 Total: 0.986
10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.29ERA
3.28FIP
10.33K/9
3.26BB/9
1.35WHIP
MIL
3.71ERA
3.55FIP
9.39K/9
3.99BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-33.2% EV
-169
F5 OVER 3.5
+16.2% EV
+104
TOTAL UNDER 6.5
-14.5% EV
-104
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-14.0% EV
+140
ML AWAY
-12.3% EV
-130
F5_ML AWAY
-12.3% EV
-139
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.2 runs
41.8% win
MIL F5
2.2 runs
42.5% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
52.3%
YRFI
47.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.98
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
66%
No HR
11%
Kyle Schwarber PHI28.5%
ISO: 0.323 | Barrel: 18.8% | vs Kyle Harrison
Jackson Chourio MIL22.8%
ISO: 0.217 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Cristopher Sánchez | Platoon: 1.12x
Bryce Harper PHI18.8%
ISO: 0.142 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Kyle Harrison
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Cristopher Sánchez
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Kyle Harrison
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PHI8 injured
Steward Berroa RFPATERNITY
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Kyle Backhus RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Walling RPDAY-TO-DAY
Carson DeMartini SSDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
MIL8 injured
Coleman Crow SP15-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL
Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
DL Hall RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 51.6%
-33.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-33.2 pts
Total
6.5
+4.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →