PHI vs NYM prediction for June 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 3.2 - PHI 3.9. PHI is favored with a 56.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 7.1 total runs.
NYM
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
PHI
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMPHI
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.6% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
246
NYM
135
Projected
NYM 3.2 — PHI 3.9
Actual
NYM 6 — PHI 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tim Mayza L
PHI
SI61%94 mph19% whiff
SL32%87 mph24% whiff
FS3%91 mph33% whiff
Christian Scott R
NYM
FF50%95 mph22% whiff
ST23%81 mph29% whiff
FC17%89 mph13% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
76°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.045 Total: 1.025
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.19ERA
3.22FIP
10.30K/9
3.17BB/9
1.34WHIP
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-32.3% EV
+100
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-27.6% EV
-185
F5_ML HOME
-27.1% EV
-141
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-23.6% EV
+155
F5_ML AWAY
+21.6% EV
+112
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
+20.4% EV
-122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.2 runs
51.2% win
NYM F5
1.5 runs
31.8% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
55.7%
YRFI
44.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.89
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
61%
No HR
13%
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.319 | Barrel: 18.2% | vs Christian Scott | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryce Harper PHI28.4%
ISO: 0.301 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Christian Scott | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Juan Soto NYM22.0%
ISO: 0.225 | Barrel: 15.2% | vs Tim Mayza | Park: 0.96x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tim Mayza
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Christian Scott
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PHI8 injured
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
Liover Peguero SSDAY-TO-DAY
Andrew Bechtold 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Brad Keller RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Walling RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Dedniel Nunez RP60-DAY-IL
Marcus Semien 2B10-DAY-IL
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
Christian Arroyo 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Lambert RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jorge Polanco 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=253)
Model 7.08 total vs market 9.0 = 20.4% UNDER edge (exceptional). NYM home 43.7% (away fave). Scott (B- pitcher, 10.5% K rate, 0.498 overall) vs Mayza (B pitcher, 8.7% K, 0.555 overall — away advantage). PHI lineup strong (Harper, Schwarber 30% HR each), NYM lineup solid (Soto 22% HR). Game in progress: PHI 2, NYM 4 (through some inning). Model's conservative 7.08 total justified by pitcher K rates + park factor 1.0 (Citi Field neutral). Market 9.0 seems inflated.
Key Factors
- Pitcher K-rate edge (away): Mayza 8.7% K vs Scott 10.5% K — away has slight advantage, contradicts model's away lean on direction but supports under (lower scoring)
- Park factor: Citi Field 1.0 (neutral), no wind bias (+1.025 multiplier minimal)
- Model total 7.08 vs market 9.0: 1.92-run gap exceptional, reflects model's conservative SP assessment
- Game in progress: 6 runs through ~5 innings validates under trajectory
- F5 under edge: +12.9% (model 55.3% under) further confirms pitcher control
Risk Factors
- High edge 20.4% UNDER: Zone historically 50.1% WR (YELLOW); 20%+ edge in totals shows overconfidence tendency
- Game in progress: Final result unpredictable; current pace 9-10 runs matches market
- PHI lineup strong (Harper, Schwarber): Could explode in late innings, inflating total
TOTALS VALUEPITCHER MISMATCHGAME IN PROGRESSHIGH EDGE WARNINGYELLOW ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 56.3%
-23.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-23.6 pts
Total
9.0
+20.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →