PHI vs NYM prediction for June 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 3.5 - PHI 4.8. PHI is favored with a 62.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
NYM
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
PHI
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMPHI
+1.5
Run Line (NYM)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
357
NYM
245
Projected
NYM 3.5 — PHI 4.8
Actual
NYM 4 — PHI 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jesús Luzardo L
PHI
ST36%86 mph48% whiff
FF25%97 mph12% whiff
CH21%86 mph38% whiff
Cionel Pérez L
NYM
SI28%96 mph13% whiff
SV28%86 mph30% whiff
CU24%85 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
82°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.006 Total: 1.001
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.19ERA
3.22FIP
10.30K/9
3.17BB/9
1.34WHIP
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-43.9% EV
-130
F5_ML HOME
-15.9% EV
+126
ML HOME
-10.5% EV
+132
F5 OVER 4.5
+6.2% EV
-108
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-6.2% EV
-102
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-3.7% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.8 runs
54.9% win
NYM F5
1.9 runs
30.6% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
49.4%
YRFI
50.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.12
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
6%
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.310 | Barrel: 18.2% | vs Cionel Pérez | Park: 0.96x
Derek Hill PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.221 | Barrel: 7.4% | vs Cionel Pérez | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Brandon Marsh PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.134 | Barrel: 8.5% | vs Cionel Pérez | Park: 0.96x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jesús Luzardo
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Cionel Pérez
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PHI8 injured
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
Liover Peguero SSDAY-TO-DAY
Andrew Bechtold 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Brad Keller RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Walling RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Jorge Polanco 1B60-DAY-IL
Dedniel Nunez RP60-DAY-IL
Marcus Semien 2B10-DAY-IL
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
Christian Arroyo 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Lambert RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE50.5% WR (n=279)
Jesu's Luzardo (B grade, 27.8% K rate) vs Cionel Pérez (B- grade, 18.9% K rate) — PHI away pitching advantage mixed with NYM home field creates near-neutral game. Model projects 62.1% away win prob vs market 61.0% implied, edge of only +0.7%. Both offenses strong; no clear direction.
Key Factors
- Pitcher K-rate edge: Luzardo 27.8% vs Pérez 18.9% — 8.9pt K rate difference favors PHI away, but not elite-level advantage
- Kyle Schwarber heating up (30 HRs, fastest Phillies pace) — added upside for PHI lineup, but market may have priced this
- NYM home field (1.0 park factor) offsets pitcher disadvantage slightly
- Weather 81.8F, neutral wind at Citi Field — no impact
- Bullpens similar: NYM 3.44 ERA vs PHI 4.19 ERA — NYM slight edge in relief
Risk Factors
- Minimal edge (0.7%) not worth risking. Market fairly valued.
- Away favorite combo zone (40.9% WR) still a caution flag
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 62.1%
-43.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-43.9 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →