PHI vs PIT prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 3.7 - PHI 3.3. PIT is favored with a 55.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 7.0 total runs.
PIT
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
PHI
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITPHI
-1.5
Run Line (PIT)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.6% (2,128 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
135
PIT
246
Projected
PIT 3.7 — PHI 3.3
Actual
PIT 0 — PHI 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zack Wheeler R
PHI
FF34%95 mph26% whiff
SI19%94 mph0% whiff
ST14%81 mph35% whiff
Paul Skenes R
PIT
FF37%97 mph27% whiff
CH17%89 mph30% whiff
ST16%84 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
83°F10 mph wind
HR: 0.990 Total: 0.991
thin air, 10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.39ERA
3.22FIP
10.31K/9
3.38BB/9
1.38WHIP
PIT
4.35ERA
4.09FIP
8.94K/9
4.44BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-43.3% EV
-200
TOTAL OVER 7.0
-23.2% EV
-122
F5_ML AWAY
-10.9% EV
+114
ML AWAY
-6.0% EV
+110
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-2.8% EV
+164
ML HOME
-2.2% EV
-130
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
1.5 runs
32.9% win
PIT F5
2.1 runs
47.6% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
59.5%
YRFI
40.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.76
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
65%
No HR
11%
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.434 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Paul Skenes | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryce Harper PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.313 | Barrel: 15.2% | vs Paul Skenes | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Brandon Lowe PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.352 | Barrel: 17.5% | vs Zack Wheeler | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Zack Wheeler
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Paul Skenes
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PHI8 injured
Kyle Backhus RP15-DAY-IL
Zach Pop RP15-DAY-IL
Keaton Anthony 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Johan Rojas CFSUSPENSION
Rene Pinto CDAY-TO-DAY
Daniel Robert RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
PIT8 injured
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Jared Jones SP60-DAY-IL
Joey Bart C10-DAY-IL
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Chris Devenski RP15-DAY-IL
Oddanier Mosqueda RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 55.5%
-2.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-2.8 pts
Total
7.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →