Who is predicted to win PHI vs SD on May 25, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, PHI is favored with a 55.9% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is SD 3.2 - PHI 3.8.

How did PHI vs SD on May 25, 2026 end?

Final score: SD 0 - PHI 3. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

PHI vs SD Prediction & Picks — May 25, 2026

PHI vs SD prediction for May 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 3.2 - PHI 3.8. PHI is favored with a 55.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.0 total runs.

3.2

Projected Score

VS O/U 7.5

PHI

3.8

Projected Score

Win Probability

44.1%

55.9%

SDPHI

+1.5

Run Line (SD)

7.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.9% (2,300 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

PHI

246

135

Projected

SD 3.2 — PHI 3.8

Actual

SD 0 — PHI 3

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Jesús Luzardo L

PHI

ST36%86 mph47% whiff

FF26%97 mph13% whiff

CH22%86 mph40% whiff

Griffin Canning R

CH33%90 mph33% whiff

FF24%95 mph26% whiff

SL22%88 mph43% whiff

Weather Impact

PETCO Park

70°F11 mph wind

HR: 0.980 Total: 0.987

7mph in

Bullpen Comparison

PHI

4.48ERA

3.35FIP

10.21K/9

3.24BB/9

1.37WHIP

3.26ERA

3.48FIP

8.35K/9

3.50BB/9

1.22WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE HOME +1.5

-43.0% EV

-161

TOTAL OVER 7.5

-18.5% EV

-104

TOTAL UNDER 7.5

+8.1% EV

-118

RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5

-7.7% EV

+132

ML HOME

-6.8% EV

+110

F5 UNDER 4.5

+6.4% EV

-141

First 5 Innings & NRFI

PHI F5

2.1 runs

46.4% win

SD F5

1.7 runs

34.8% win

F5 Total

3.9

NRFI

63.8%

YRFI

36.2%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

0.70

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

1.5

Over 0.5 HR

78%

Over 1.5 HR

44%

No HR

22%

Kyle Schwarber PHI29.0%

ISO: 0.387 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Griffin Canning | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x

Bryce Harper PHI26.1%

ISO: 0.300 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Griffin Canning | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x

Bryson Stott PHI17.1%

ISO: 0.168 | Barrel: 8.3% | vs Griffin Canning | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Jesús Luzardo

0.0 K projected

PHI | K/9: 0.0

Griffin Canning

0.0 K projected

SD | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

PHI8 injured

Kyle Backhus RP15-DAY-IL

Zach Pop RP15-DAY-IL

Keaton Anthony 1BDAY-TO-DAY

Johan Rojas CFSUSPENSION

Rene Pinto CDAY-TO-DAY

Daniel Robert RPDAY-TO-DAY

+2 more

SD8 injured

Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL

German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL

Luis Campusano C10-DAY-IL

Jhony Brito RP60-DAY-IL

Yu Darvish SPOUT

Blake Hunt CDAY-TO-DAY

+2 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

LEANYELLOW ZONE50.0% WR (n=285)

Model projects 7.02 total runs (UNDER 7.5, +8.1% edge, 58.4% model prob). Pitcher matchup slightly favors PHI (Luzardo B, 0.607 grade vs Canning B-, 0.456 grade), but both are solid arms (both ~10.7-10.8 K/9). Edge comes from weather: Petco Park (0.9 park factor, -10% run suppression) + wind 11.2 mph IN (additional suppression) + temp 69.6F (slightly cool). Model projects 7.02 runs; market at 7.5 = modest undervalue of run environment (0.48 run gap). UNDER bet requires discipline (totals disabled, grade F), but weather + park factor stack supports play.

Key Factors

Park factor + weather stack: Petco (0.9 multiplier) + wind 11.2 mph IN (0.987 multiplier per system) + temp 69.6F (slightly cool, minor suppression) = cumulative ~0.89 run multiplier vs neutral baseline. Model 7.02 baseline vs market 7.5 = 0.48 run undervalue.
Pitcher profile: Luzardo (B, 0.607 grade, 10.8 K/9) is solid premium arm; Canning (B-, 0.456 grade, 10.7 K/9) is comparable. Both have excellent K-rates; likely low-run environment per league trends. No dramatic SP-driven scoring advantage either direction.
NRFI probability 61.0% (model) — elevated first-inning scoring resistance supports under lean.
Historical: Both teams play in/near Petco and Oracle (marine layer parks). Expect lower-scoring matches in NL West coastal matchups.

Risk Factors

TOTALS DISABLED (grade F, 44.9% WR). Extreme caution on ALL total edges, even 8.1%. This is hard filter; consider skipping due to calibration risk alone.
Edge 8.1% is modest; combined with disabled totals status, risk/reward is poor. Market may be accurately pricing Petco run environment despite park factor.
Underdog PHI value play (+129 away) may be more interesting (55.6% model prob) than chasing total edge.

WEATHER IMPACTPARK FACTORTOTALS VALUE

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

PHI 55.9%

-43.0 pts

Run Line