PHI vs SD prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 3.3 - PHI 3.9. PHI is favored with a 56.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
SD
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
PHI
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDPHI
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.9% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
246
SD
135
Projected
SD 3.3 — PHI 3.9
Actual
SD 3 — PHI 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Aaron Nola R
PHI
KC32%78 mph36% whiff
FF27%92 mph13% whiff
SI18%91 mph9% whiff
Randy Vásquez R
SD
FF31%95 mph19% whiff
FC25%90 mph21% whiff
SI14%95 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
62°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.979 Total: 0.987
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.41ERA
3.32FIP
10.24K/9
3.23BB/9
1.36WHIP
SD
3.22ERA
3.47FIP
8.32K/9
3.50BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-45.4% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-18.2% EV
-114
ML HOME
-14.8% EV
-112
F5_ML HOME
-14.2% EV
-112
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+9.6% EV
-106
F5 UNDER 4.5
+7.7% EV
-128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.2 runs
46.2% win
SD F5
1.8 runs
36.0% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
57.6%
YRFI
42.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
83%
Over 1.5 HR
52%
No HR
17%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Aaron Nola
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Randy Vásquez
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PHI8 injured
Kyle Backhus RP15-DAY-IL
Zach Pop RP15-DAY-IL
Keaton Anthony 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Johan Rojas CFSUSPENSION
Rene Pinto CDAY-TO-DAY
Daniel Robert RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
SD8 injured
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Luis Campusano C10-DAY-IL
Jhony Brito RP60-DAY-IL
Yu Darvish SPOUT
Blake Hunt CDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE38.2% WR (n=6)
Model projects 54.9% PHI away win prob, market prices SD at -112 = 52.9% implied PHI away. Edge is only +7.7%, BELOW the 8% minimum threshold for system confidence. Pitcher matchup: Nola (PHI, N/A ERA, 9.1 K-rate) vs Vasquez (SD, N/A ERA, 7.5 K-rate) — both unknowns but Nola likely better (K-rate advantage). Weather is strong suppression: 62.3F COLD (-0.75 to 1.0 runs), 7.9 mph wind BLOWING IN (-6.5 tail-wind, suppresses HRs). Park factor 0.9 (Petco suppresses 10%). All these factors predict LOW scoring. Model projects 7.17 total (very low), yet market is 7.5 UNDER. Edge is modest (+9.6% for UNDER, but UNDER disabled). On the ML side, 7.7% edge is weak (below 8% threshold). LEAN appropriate to exploit the modest PHI value without overcommitting.
Key Factors
- Nola (PHI): 9.1 K-rate, N/A ERA (likely B- tier), KC-heavy pitch mix
- Vasquez (SD): 7.5 K-rate, N/A ERA, moderate pitcher
- Weather: 62.3F COLD (suppresses runs ~0.75-1.0), wind -6.5 mph IN (suppresses HRs)
- Park factor 0.9 (Petco is known under park, -12% runs)
- Model 7.17 total (very low) vs market 7.5 UNDER — suppression thesis confirmed
Risk Factors
- Edge +7.7% is below 8% system threshold; modest confidence
- Away ML historically weak (RED zone 38.8% WR in 7-sample combo)
- Both starters unknown quality (N/A ERA)
MODEST EDGEWEATHER SUPPRESSIONCOLD TEMPWIND INPITCHER BALANCEPETCO PARK SUPPRESSION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 56.3%
-45.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-45.4 pts
Total
7.5
+9.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →