PHI vs SD prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 3.3 - PHI 3.9. PHI is favored with a 56.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
SD
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
PHI
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDPHI
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.0% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
246
SD
135
Projected
SD 3.3 — PHI 3.9
Actual
SD 3 — PHI 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Aaron Nola R
PHI
KC32%78 mph36% whiff
FF27%92 mph13% whiff
SI18%91 mph9% whiff
Randy Vásquez R
SD
FF31%95 mph19% whiff
FC25%90 mph21% whiff
SI14%95 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
62°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.979 Total: 0.987
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.41ERA
3.32FIP
10.24K/9
3.23BB/9
1.36WHIP
SD
3.22ERA
3.47FIP
8.32K/9
3.50BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-45.4% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-18.2% EV
-114
ML HOME
-14.8% EV
-112
F5_ML HOME
-14.2% EV
-112
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+9.6% EV
-106
F5 UNDER 4.5
+7.7% EV
-128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.2 runs
46.2% win
SD F5
1.8 runs
36.0% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
57.6%
YRFI
42.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
83%
Over 1.5 HR
52%
No HR
17%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Aaron Nola
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Randy Vásquez
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PHI8 injured
Kyle Backhus RP15-DAY-IL
Zach Pop RP15-DAY-IL
Keaton Anthony 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Johan Rojas CFSUSPENSION
Rene Pinto CDAY-TO-DAY
Daniel Robert RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
SD8 injured
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Luis Campusano C10-DAY-IL
Jhony Brito RP60-DAY-IL
Yu Darvish SPOUT
Blake Hunt CDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Model projects 54.9% PHI away win prob, market prices SD at -112 = 52.9% implied PHI away. Edge is only +7.7%, BELOW the 8% minimum threshold for system confidence. Pitcher matchup: Nola (PHI, N/A ERA, 9.1 K-rate) vs Vasquez (SD, N/A ERA, 7.5 K-rate) — both unknowns but Nola likely better (K-rate advantage). Weather is strong suppression: 62.3F COLD (-0.75 to 1.0 runs), 7.9 mph wind BLOWING IN (-6.5 tail-wind, suppresses HRs). Park factor 0.9 (Petco suppresses 10%). All these factors predict LOW scoring. Model projects 7.17 total (very low), yet market is 7.5 UNDER. Edge is modest (+9.6% for UNDER, but UNDER disabled). On the ML side, 7.7% edge is weak (below 8% threshold). LEAN appropriate to exploit the modest PHI value without overcommitting.
Key Factors
- Nola (PHI): 9.1 K-rate, N/A ERA (likely B- tier), KC-heavy pitch mix
- Vasquez (SD): 7.5 K-rate, N/A ERA, moderate pitcher
- Weather: 62.3F COLD (suppresses runs ~0.75-1.0), wind -6.5 mph IN (suppresses HRs)
- Park factor 0.9 (Petco is known under park, -12% runs)
- Model 7.17 total (very low) vs market 7.5 UNDER — suppression thesis confirmed
Risk Factors
- Edge +7.7% is below 8% system threshold; modest confidence
- Away ML historically weak (historically weak a supportive track record in 7-sample combo)
- Both starters unknown quality (N/A ERA)
MODEST EDGEWEATHER SUPPRESSIONCOLD TEMPWIND INPITCHER BALANCEPETCO PARK SUPPRESSION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 56.3%
-45.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-45.4 pts
Total
7.5
+9.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →