PHI vs TOR prediction for June 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 4.5 - PHI 4.4. TOR is favored with a 53.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
TOR
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
PHI
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORPHI
+1.5
Run Line (TOR)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.6% (2,249 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
246
TOR
346
Projected
TOR 4.5 — PHI 4.4
Actual
TOR 3 — PHI 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zack Wheeler R
PHI
FF39%95 mph22% whiff
SI16%95 mph3% whiff
FS13%87 mph38% whiff
Dylan Cease R
TOR
FF34%98 mph25% whiff
SL29%89 mph44% whiff
CH11%85 mph57% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
70°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.060 Total: 1.034
7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.08ERA
3.27FIP
10.33K/9
3.15BB/9
1.32WHIP
TOR
3.97ERA
3.68FIP
8.95K/9
3.51BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-33.9% EV
-200
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
-15.8% EV
-105
F5_ML AWAY
-11.0% EV
-120
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-8.7% EV
+164
ML AWAY
-7.8% EV
-106
TOTAL OVER 7.0
+6.2% EV
-115
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.3 runs
39.7% win
TOR F5
2.4 runs
43.8% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
57.3%
YRFI
42.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.91
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
60%
No HR
13%
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.349 | Barrel: 19.3% | vs Dylan Cease | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Jesús Sánchez TOR21.1%
ISO: 0.111 | Barrel: 11.1% | vs Zack Wheeler | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Kazuma Okamoto TOR20.4%
ISO: 0.193 | Barrel: 11.1% | vs Zack Wheeler | Park: 1.01x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Zack Wheeler
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Dylan Cease
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PHI7 injured
Kyle Backhus RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Walling RPDAY-TO-DAY
Carson DeMartini SSDAY-TO-DAY
Johan Rojas CFSUSPENSION
Rene Pinto CDAY-TO-DAY
Daniel Robert RPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
TOR8 injured
Daulton Varsho CFDAY-TO-DAY
Lazaro Estrada RP60-DAY-IL
Shane Bieber SP60-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Alejandro Kirk C60-DAY-IL
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE51.0% WR (n=364)
Model projects TOR 53.1% with minimal edges (OVER +6.2% largest); while Dylan Cease (3.29 ERA, elite K 34.8%) has better stuff than Zack Wheeler (2.49 ERA, 25.4% K), the matchup is close and market has appropriately priced near-50/50 with dome-closed neutral conditions.
Key Factors
- Pitcher wash: Cease elite K stuff (34.8%, 0.838 stuff) vs Wheeler reliable ERA (2.49) and veterans experience; near-neutral overall
- Dome-closed neutrality: Retractable roof closed eliminates wind variable; baseline multiplier 1.034 already accounts for minor temp/humidity
- Minimal edges: Largest edge OVER +6.2% is marginal; ML edges <1% indicate market has priced correctly
- Near 50/50: Model 53.1% TOR aligns with market -109 (52.4% implied) — true consensus game
Risk Factors
- Cease's high K rate could produce strikeout-driven offense suppression; Wheeler's ERA reliability might hold
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TOR 53.1%
-33.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-33.9 pts
Total
7.0
+6.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →