PHI vs TOR prediction for June 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 4.5 - PHI 5.7. PHI is favored with a 57.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.3 total runs.
TOR
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
PHI
5.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORPHI
+1.5
Run Line (TOR)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.7% (2,257 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
468
TOR
346
Projected
TOR 4.5 — PHI 5.7
Actual
TOR 4 — PHI 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jesús Luzardo L
PHI
ST35%86 mph46% whiff
FF26%97 mph12% whiff
CH22%86 mph40% whiff
Max Scherzer R
TOR
FF48%93 mph12% whiff
SL22%86 mph18% whiff
CH15%84 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
80°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.998 Total: 0.996
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.13ERA
3.24FIP
10.36K/9
3.12BB/9
1.32WHIP
TOR
3.97ERA
3.66FIP
8.99K/9
3.52BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-41.6% EV
-152
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-23.4% EV
+100
F5_ML HOME
-14.1% EV
+128
F5 OVER 4.5
+12.8% EV
-114
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+12.3% EV
-122
ML HOME
-8.5% EV
+112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
3.5 runs
55.8% win
TOR F5
2.5 runs
32.1% win
F5 Total
6.0
NRFI
44.6%
YRFI
55.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.30
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.0
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
80%
No HR
5%
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.342 | Barrel: 18.9% | vs Max Scherzer | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryce Harper PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.291 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Max Scherzer | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Brandon Marsh PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.191 | Barrel: 9.1% | vs Max Scherzer | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jesús Luzardo
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Max Scherzer
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PHI6 injured
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Kyle Backhus RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Walling RPDAY-TO-DAY
Carson DeMartini SSDAY-TO-DAY
Daniel Robert RPDAY-TO-DAY
Mark Kolozsvary CDAY-TO-DAY
TOR8 injured
Daulton Varsho CFDAY-TO-DAY
Lazaro Estrada RP60-DAY-IL
Shane Bieber SP60-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Alejandro Kirk C60-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE55.5% WR (n=20)
Market soft on totals: Model 10.29 vs market 8.5 (1.79 run gap). Max Scherzer (10.41 ERA, C grade, 11.7% K) is liability; Jesús Luzardo (4.92 ERA, B grade, 25.5% K) solid. Model 61.7% OVER 8.5 = +12.3% edge. F5 OVER also +12.8% edge supports early scoring.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch in TOR's favor: Luzardo (4.92 ERA, B grade, 25.5% K) vs Scherzer (10.41 ERA, C grade, 11.7% K) — Scherzer is MASSIVE liability. 5.5 ERA gap suggests 2+ runs suppression by PHI.
- 1.79 run gap on totals: Model 10.29 vs market 8.5 is sizable. Rogers Centre (1.0 factor) neutral; 79.5F moderate heat.
- F5 OVER edge +12.8%: Model 60% vs market ~47% — early inning action another angle supporting OVER.
- YELLOW zone 55.5% WR (n=20) on 10-15% edge bucket provides solid support despite zone label. Combo 61.3% reinforces.
Risk Factors
- Scherzer's 10.41 ERA may be recent artifact (recent collapse). If he settles, pitch better than projection.
- PHI strong lineup (Schwarber, Harper ISO leaders) — could overcome Scherzer disadvantage.
- Rogers Centre retractable roof (1.0 factor) — no wind benefit. Scoring more pitcher-dependent.
PITCHER MISMATCHHIGH EDGE WARNINGLINE VALUEGREEN ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 57.4%
-41.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-41.6 pts
Total
8.5
+12.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →