PHI vs WSH prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects WSH 4.4 - PHI 5.6. PHI is favored with a 55.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 10.0 total runs.
WSH
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
PHI
5.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHPHI
-1.5
Run Line (WSH)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.1% (2,512 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
468
WSH
246
Projected
WSH 4.4 — PHI 5.6
Actual
WSH 4 — PHI 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tim Mayza L
PHI
SI62%94 mph21% whiff
SL32%87 mph25% whiff
FS3%91 mph50% whiff
Foster Griffin L
WSH
FC30%88 mph17% whiff
FF18%92 mph17% whiff
ST15%80 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
77°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.066 Total: 1.036
7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.19ERA
3.22FIP
10.30K/9
3.17BB/9
1.34WHIP
WSH
4.62ERA
4.93FIP
7.77K/9
4.06BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML HOME
-31.1% EV
-139
F5_ML AWAY
+25.9% EV
+110
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-25.4% EV
+155
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-23.0% EV
-189
ML HOME
-15.8% EV
-120
ML AWAY
+9.1% EV
+102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
3.3 runs
56.1% win
WSH F5
2.2 runs
30.2% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
52.2%
YRFI
47.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.06
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
6%
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.310 | Barrel: 18.2% | vs Foster Griffin
Bryce Harper PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.136 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Foster Griffin
Alec Bohm PHI28.3%
ISO: 0.208 | Barrel: 6.7% | vs Foster Griffin | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tim Mayza
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Foster Griffin
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PHI8 injured
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
Liover Peguero SSDAY-TO-DAY
Andrew Bechtold 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Brad Keller RP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Walling RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
WSH8 injured
Max Kranick RP60-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Jacob Young CFDAY-TO-DAY
Jarlin Susana RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ken Waldichuk RP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +0YELLOW ZONE55.6% WR (n=8)
PHI away projects 55.5% win prob (55% model) vs market 49.5% (102 ML). Model edge 9.1% driven by F5 dominance (25.9% F5 edge at 60% prob). Griffin (0 ERA, 8.5 K-rate) unproven, Mayza (0 ERA, 8.7 K-rate) both arms strong but lacking data. Lean on first-5 edge as primary signal.
Key Factors
- F5 edge massive: 25.9% on F5 ML (60% prob for PHI first 5 innings) — clean early-game advantage
- Full-game ML edge more modest: 9.1% (54% prob) — suggests mid-late game scenarios favor WSH
- Both SPs unproven (0 ERA recorded): Griffin B- overall (8.5 K-rate), Mayza B overall (8.7 K-rate) — limited history
- PHI lineup elite (Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper 30% HR prob each) > WSH talent mismatch early
- Nationals Park 1.066 HR multiplier + 7.4 mph wind out favors power-hitting PHI lineup early
Risk Factors
- Both pitchers lack Bayesian ERA data (0 recorded) — model may be interpolating; blind spot risk
- Sample size 8 on zone profile — insufficient validation of 55.6% WR
- 9.1% edge < 10% threshold; marginal conviction. First-5 dominance may not translate full game.
PITCHER MISMATCHML VALUEYELLOW ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 55.5%
-25.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-25.4 pts
Total
9.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →