PHI vs WSH prediction for June 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects WSH 4.7 - PHI 5.2. PHI is favored with a 52.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 9.9 total runs.
WSH
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
PHI
5.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHPHI
+1.5
Run Line (WSH)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.3% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
357
WSH
357
Projected
WSH 4.7 — PHI 5.2
Actual
WSH 4 — PHI 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Aaron Nola R
PHI
KC33%78 mph35% whiff
FF24%92 mph14% whiff
SI21%92 mph10% whiff
Carson Palmquist L
WSH
FF52%90 mph8% whiff
ST32%74 mph33% whiff
FC12%82 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
82°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.014 Total: 1.006
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.19ERA
3.22FIP
10.30K/9
3.17BB/9
1.34WHIP
WSH
4.62ERA
4.93FIP
7.77K/9
4.06BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-35.5% EV
-156
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-7.3% EV
+130
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-7.2% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-5.8% EV
+102
ML AWAY
-5.3% EV
-127
F5_ML AWAY
-5.0% EV
-128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
3.0 runs
46.9% win
WSH F5
2.8 runs
40.9% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
45.5%
YRFI
54.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.29
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.4
Over 0.5 HR
97%
Over 1.5 HR
85%
No HR
3%
Bryce Harper PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.136 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Carson Palmquist
Edmundo Sosa PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.187 | Barrel: 7.4% | vs Carson Palmquist | Platoon: 1.12x
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.303 | Barrel: 16.0% | vs Aaron Nola | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Aaron Nola
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Carson Palmquist
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PHI8 injured
Kyle Schwarber DHDAY-TO-DAY
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Liover Peguero SSDAY-TO-DAY
Andrew Bechtold 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Brad Keller RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
WSH8 injured
Jake Irvin SP15-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Max Kranick RP60-DAY-IL
Jarlin Susana RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ken Waldichuk RP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE50.3% WR (n=254)
Both starting pitchers present data integrity concerns: Carson Palmquist (home) has TBD/missing ERA data (C-grade, 15.4% K-rate, 14.3% BB), and Aaron Nola (away) shows 6.17 ERA (worst on slate for away starter). Matchup is even on ML (market essentially a toss-up at -108/-108 home/away). No compelling pitcher advantage, no significant edges on ML or totals. DATA INTEGRITY flag prevents confident assessment.
Key Factors
- Pitcher data integrity: Palmquist TBD ERA (C-grade, weak arsenal), Nola 6.17 ERA. Both mediocre.
Risk Factors
- Missing Palmquist ERA data prevents full assessment of home advantage/disadvantage
DATA INTEGRITY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 52.7%
-35.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-35.5 pts
Total
9.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →