FINAL: CIN 2 — PIT 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CIN 5.7 - PIT 4.7 (CIN at 59.4% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.4 total runs.
CIN
5.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
PIT
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
CINPIT
-1.5
Run Line (CIN)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
PITCIN W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
357
CIN
468
Projected
CIN 5.7 — PIT 4.7
Actual
CIN 2 — PIT 0
Pick Results
PIT @ CIN F5 UNDER 4.5f5WIN+1.15u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Braxton Ashcraft R
PIT
SL31%92 mph30% whiff
FF30%97 mph16% whiff
CU21%84 mph34% whiff
Chase Burns R
CIN
FF58%99 mph22% whiff
SL34%91 mph44% whiff
CH6%91 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Great American Ball Park
73°F15 mph wind
HR: 0.969 Total: 0.979
11mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
5.05ERA
3.43FIP
10.63K/9
4.76BB/9
1.37WHIP
CIN
3.62ERA
3.96FIP
10.02K/9
3.77BB/9
1.16WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-44.8% EV
-189
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-22.5% EV
-112
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+16.1% EV
-108
ML AWAY
-10.4% EV
+112
F5_ML AWAY
-6.4% EV
+108
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+4.9% EV
+155
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
2.0 runs
36.4% win
CIN F5
2.4 runs
46.4% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
57.4%
YRFI
42.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.85
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
0.0
Over 0.5 HR
0%
Over 1.5 HR
0%
No HR
0%
Elly De La Cruz CIN16.4%
ISO: 0.209 | Barrel: 9.5% | vs Braxton Ashcraft | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Eugenio Suárez CIN13.8%
ISO: 0.134 | Barrel: 13.4% | vs Braxton Ashcraft | Park: 1.08x
Brandon Lowe PIT13.3%
ISO: 0.258 | Barrel: 11.1% | vs Chase Burns | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Braxton Ashcraft
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Chase Burns
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT5 injured
Chris Devenski RPOUT
Oddanier Mosqueda RPOUT
Ronny Simon 2BOUT
Jared Jones SP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
CIN6 injured
Nick Lodolo SP15-DAY-IL
Caleb Ferguson RP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Josh Staumont RPDAY-TO-DAY
Alex Young RPOUT
Carson Spiers SPOUT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CIN 59.4%
+4.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+4.9 pts
Total
8.5
+16.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →