PIT vs CIN prediction for March 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CIN 6.1 - PIT 5.7. CIN is favored with a 55.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 11.8 total runs.
CIN
6.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
PIT
5.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
CINPIT
+1.5
Run Line (CIN)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
PITCIN W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
468
CIN
468
Projected
CIN 6.1 — PIT 5.7
Actual
CIN 3 — PIT 8
Pick Results
Jake Mangum OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsWIN+1.82u
CIN MLmlLOSS-1.00u
CIN F5 MLf5_mlLOSS-1.00u
F5 OVER 4.5f5_totalLOSS-1.00u
PIT @ CIN NRFInrfiWIN+0.91u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bubba Chandler R
PIT
FF54%99 mph26% whiff
CH23%92 mph38% whiff
SL17%89 mph20% whiff
Brandon Williamson L
CIN
FC45%90 mph16% whiff
FF26%93 mph13% whiff
CH22%84 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Great American Ball Park
82°F19 mph wind
HR: 0.959 Total: 0.974
thin air, 15mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
4.67ERA
3.39FIP
10.63K/9
4.68BB/9
1.34WHIP
CIN
3.33ERA
3.73FIP
9.30K/9
3.54BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-38.8% EV
-108
TOTAL OVER 9.0
+31.3% EV
-112
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-27.6% EV
-169
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-17.6% EV
+140
ML AWAY
-12.5% EV
-116
F5_ML AWAY
-10.0% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
2.6 runs
40.7% win
CIN F5
2.8 runs
45.3% win
F5 Total
5.3
NRFI
54.8%
YRFI
45.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.00
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.4
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
84%
No HR
4%
Sal Stewart CIN21.9%
ISO: 0.271 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Bubba Chandler | Park: 1.08x
Elly De La Cruz CIN18.8%
ISO: 0.209 | Barrel: 10.0% | vs Bubba Chandler | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Ryan O'Hearn PIT16.9%
ISO: 0.196 | Barrel: 9.3% | vs Brandon Williamson | Park: 1.08x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bubba Chandler
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Brandon Williamson
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT4 injured
Chris Devenski RPOUT
Oddanier Mosqueda RPOUT
Jared Jones SP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
CIN7 injured
Connor Burns CDAY-TO-DAY
Nick Lodolo SP15-DAY-IL
Caleb Ferguson RP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Josh Staumont RPDAY-TO-DAY
Alex Young RPOUT
+1 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CIN 55.2%
-27.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-27.6 pts
Total
9.0
+31.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →