FINAL: HOU 6 — PIT 10. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected HOU 6.2 - PIT 4.6 (HOU at 65.5% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.8 total runs.
HOU
6.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
PIT
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUPIT
+1.5
Run Line (HOU)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
PITHOU W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.1% (2,497 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
357
HOU
468
Projected
HOU 6.2 — PIT 4.6
Actual
HOU 6 — PIT 10
Pick Results
HOU MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bubba Chandler R
PIT
FF51%98 mph19% whiff
CH19%92 mph25% whiff
SL13%90 mph27% whiff
Mike Burrows R
HOU
FF28%95 mph9% whiff
CH27%87 mph32% whiff
SL16%90 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
Minute Maid Park
83°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.071 Total: 1.038
thin air, 8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
4.12ERA
4.12FIP
9.29K/9
4.35BB/9
1.36WHIP
HOU
4.92ERA
4.81FIP
7.61K/9
5.24BB/9
1.45WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-31.3% EV
+152
F5_ML AWAY
-28.4% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-28.4% EV
-115
ML AWAY
-26.9% EV
-104
ML HOME
+18.5% EV
-112
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-17.8% EV
-185
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
2.5 runs
29.5% win
HOU F5
3.9 runs
58.7% win
F5 Total
6.4
NRFI
42.1%
YRFI
57.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.39
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
6%
Brandon Lowe PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.331 | Barrel: 16.1% | vs Mike Burrows | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Spencer Horwitz PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.210 | Barrel: 8.9% | vs Mike Burrows | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Oneil Cruz PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.188 | Barrel: 11.3% | vs Mike Burrows | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bubba Chandler
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Mike Burrows
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT7 injured
Chris Devenski RP15-DAY-IL
Konnor Griffin SS10-DAY-IL
Joey Bart C10-DAY-IL
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Oddanier Mosqueda RPDAY-TO-DAY
Mike Clevinger RPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
HOU8 injured
Braden Shewmake SS10-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Hunter Brown SP60-DAY-IL
Cristian Javier SP60-DAY-IL
Jose Altuve 2B10-DAY-IL
Hayden Wesneski SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE55.9% WR (n=192)
HOU home projects 65.5% win despite away (PIT) having slight pitcher advantage with Chandler (9.0 K/9, C+ stuff) vs Burrows (7.7 K/9, C stuff). Home-field leverage (55.9% GREEN zone WR) and bullpen parity overpower the pitcher gap. HOU ML edge 18.5% lands in GREEN zone home. LEAN HOU ML.
Key Factors
- Home-field leverage: 55.9% GREEN zone WR dominates pitcher gap
- Pitcher disadvantage small: Chandler 9.0 vs Burrows 7.7 K/9 (17% difference, not massive)
- Market -112 implies 52.9%, model 62.7% = 9.8pt home edge
- Minute Maid Park (retractable, thin air) adds ~0.38% to total (1.038x mult)
Risk Factors
- Away has better pitcher (Chandler) and could suppress HOU runs if lineup struggles
- Bullpen: PIT 4.12 ERA better than HOU 4.92 ERA, giving away depth edge
- High edge (18.5%) historically underperforms when combined with high probability (62.7%)
GREEN ZONEML VALUEHOME FIELD ADVANTAGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 65.5%
-17.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-17.8 pts
Total
9.0
+5.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →