FINAL: HOU 11 — PIT 9. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected HOU 4.5 - PIT 4.8 (PIT at 51.1% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.4 total runs.
HOU
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
PIT
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUPIT
+1.5
Run Line (HOU)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
PIT L4HOU
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.6% (2,514 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
357
HOU
346
Projected
HOU 4.5 — PIT 4.8
Actual
HOU 11 — PIT 9
Pick Results
PIT -1.5run_lineLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Paul Skenes R
PIT
FF36%97 mph26% whiff
CH17%89 mph33% whiff
ST16%84 mph25% whiff
Spencer Arrighetti R
HOU
CU33%76 mph38% whiff
FF30%92 mph15% whiff
ST14%79 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Minute Maid Park
78°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.044 Total: 1.023
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
4.12ERA
4.12FIP
9.29K/9
4.35BB/9
1.36WHIP
HOU
4.92ERA
4.81FIP
7.61K/9
5.24BB/9
1.45WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-32.4% EV
-139
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-22.5% EV
-122
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-14.8% EV
+115
F5_ML AWAY
-12.0% EV
-175
ML AWAY
-11.7% EV
-147
ML HOME
+6.3% EV
+124
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
2.6 runs
45.7% win
HOU F5
2.3 runs
38.3% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
50.8%
YRFI
49.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.07
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
15%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.311 | Barrel: 18.9% | vs Paul Skenes | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Brandon Lowe PIT28.0%
ISO: 0.331 | Barrel: 16.1% | vs Spencer Arrighetti | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Christian Walker HOU22.6%
ISO: 0.271 | Barrel: 15.5% | vs Paul Skenes | Park: 0.99x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Paul Skenes
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Spencer Arrighetti
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT7 injured
Chris Devenski RP15-DAY-IL
Konnor Griffin SS10-DAY-IL
Joey Bart C10-DAY-IL
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Oddanier Mosqueda RPDAY-TO-DAY
Mike Clevinger RPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
HOU8 injured
Jose Altuve 2B10-DAY-IL
Braden Shewmake SS10-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Hunter Brown SP60-DAY-IL
Cristian Javier SP60-DAY-IL
Hayden Wesneski SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE47.2% WR (n=71)
Model projects near-even game (HOU 49.2%, PIT 51.1% away win prob) with HOU receiving +124 as underdog. Model gives HOU 47.5% (6.3% edge on home underdog ML). Paul Skenes (0.558 B, 3.12 ERA) vs Spencer Arrighetti (0.407 C+, 1.45 ERA) favors Arrighetti slightly despite lower grade (1.45 ERA is elite recent form). Market pricing HOU +124 implies 44.6% prob, model 47.5% — only 2.9% edge. This is thin, home underdog, no strong conviction. SKIP.
Key Factors
- SP quality: Skenes 0.558 B (3.12 ERA, elite recent form) vs Arrighetti 0.407 C+ (1.45 ERA even more elite recent) — both strong arms but Arrighetti ERA suggests dominance
- Home underdog HOU at +124 is implied 44.6% prob, model 47.5% only = 2.9% edge (marginal)
- Model total 9.39 vs market 8.0 = 1.39 run difference suggests model sees more scoring but neither pitcher is weak
Risk Factors
- Home underdog YELLOW zone (47.2% WR) is mediocre reliability
- Thin 2.9% edge doesn't justify taking home dog at -124 odds
- If Skenes dominates first inning, momentum favors PIT visitor
YELLOW ZONETHIN EDGEHOME UNDERDOGNO EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 51.1%
-32.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-32.4 pts
Total
8.0
+3.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →