PIT vs OAK prediction for June 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 4.7 - PIT 7.2. PIT is favored with a 60.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 11.9 total runs.
OAK
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.5
PIT
7.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKPIT
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
10.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.9% (2,410 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
579
OAK
357
Projected
OAK 4.7 — PIT 7.2
Actual
OAK 4 — PIT 12
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Braxton Ashcraft R
PIT
FF32%97 mph15% whiff
CU25%85 mph39% whiff
SL24%92 mph34% whiff
Aaron Civale R
OAK
FC35%87 mph20% whiff
CU23%77 mph26% whiff
SI19%91 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
Oakland Coliseum
65°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.974 Total: 0.983
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
4.50ERA
4.23FIP
9.39K/9
4.70BB/9
1.41WHIP
OAK
4.87ERA
3.91FIP
9.81K/9
4.20BB/9
1.44WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-48.5% EV
-149
F5_ML HOME
-23.1% EV
+114
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+17.2% EV
+125
TOTAL UNDER 10.5
-16.7% EV
-122
ML HOME
-15.3% EV
+108
F5_ML AWAY
+8.9% EV
-143
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
4.0 runs
59.2% win
OAK F5
2.5 runs
29.5% win
F5 Total
6.4
NRFI
45.0%
YRFI
55.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.31
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.0
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
78%
No HR
6%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Braxton Ashcraft
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Aaron Civale
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT8 injured
Oneil Cruz CF10-DAY-IL
Konnor Griffin SS10-DAY-IL
Wilber Dotel RP15-DAY-IL
Joey Bart C10-DAY-IL
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Mitch Jebb LFDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
OAK5 injured
Brooks Kriske RP60-DAY-IL
Brent Rooker DH10-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP15-DAY-IL
Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE51.3% WR (n=6)
PIT ML at -126 (away favorite, 55.9% market) is slightly underpriced vs model 59.3% prob (6.1% edge). Braxton Ashcraft (B grade, 26.2% K rate, 9.6 K/9, excellent stuff 0.536) is significantly better than Aaron Civale (C+ grade, 15.4% K rate, 6.4 K/9). Model sees value. Take PIT ML at 1.0 units; F5 ML AWAY at 8.9% edge also viable.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch significant: Braxton Ashcraft (B grade, 26.2% K rate, 9.6 K/9, 0.536 stuff) vs Aaron Civale (C+ grade, 15.4% K rate, 6.4 K/9, 0.184 stuff). 3.2 K/9 gap + stuff differential = ~1.5-2.0 pt swing to PIT
- Market slightly underpricing: -126 (55.9% implied) vs model 59.3% = 3.4% value edge to PIT
- F5 edge strong: 8.9% edge on F5 ML AWAY (+64.1% prob in early frame). Ashcraft dominates early; take alongside full game if interested
- Weather: 64.9°F at Oakland, 12.4 mph wind IN = run suppression (-8.0 mph tail wind, 0.983 total mult). Favors under, but Ashcraft dominance helps PIT win low-scoring games
- Zone: Away favorite in 5-10% edge, 55-60% prob shows 51.3% WR (n=6 small sample) — near breakeven
Risk Factors
- Away ML combo zone still RED (40.5% WR, n=62) despite away-favorite advantage — historical underperformance is real
- Oakland home field advantage (OAK is rebuilding but plays well at home) may offset pitcher mismatch
- 6.1% edge is modest; expect variance
PITCHER MISMATCHML VALUEF5 VALUEAWAY FAVORITE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 60.6%
-48.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-48.5 pts
Total
10.5
+8.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →