PIT vs PHI prediction for June 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 5.2 - PIT 6.5. PIT is favored with a 58.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.7 total runs.
PHI
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
PIT
6.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHIPIT
+1.5
Run Line (PHI)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.0% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
568
PHI
357
Projected
PHI 5.2 — PIT 6.5
Actual
PHI 7 — PIT 11
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Braxton Ashcraft R
PIT
FF31%97 mph15% whiff
CU25%85 mph41% whiff
SL23%92 mph32% whiff
Aaron Nola R
PHI
KC34%78 mph35% whiff
FF24%92 mph14% whiff
SI20%92 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
90°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.024 Total: 1.011
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
4.50ERA
4.23FIP
9.39K/9
4.70BB/9
1.41WHIP
PHI
4.19ERA
3.22FIP
10.30K/9
3.17BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-42.2% EV
-185
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-31.3% EV
+102
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+19.5% EV
-123
F5_ML HOME
-16.3% EV
+104
ML HOME
-15.7% EV
-110
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+12.0% EV
+152
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
3.6 runs
53.3% win
PHI F5
2.7 runs
34.5% win
F5 Total
6.3
NRFI
44.4%
YRFI
55.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.28
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.2
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
82%
No HR
4%
Brandon Lowe PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.312 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs Aaron Nola | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Tyler Callihan PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Aaron Nola | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.319 | Barrel: 18.2% | vs Braxton Ashcraft | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Braxton Ashcraft
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Aaron Nola
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT8 injured
Jared Jones SPDAY-TO-DAY
Spencer Horwitz 1B10-DAY-IL
Oneil Cruz CF10-DAY-IL
Wilber Dotel RP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Mitch Jebb LFDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
PHI8 injured
Brad Keller RP15-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
Liover Peguero SSDAY-TO-DAY
Andrew Bechtold 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Andrew Walling RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 58.0%
-42.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-42.2 pts
Total
8.5
+19.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →