PIT vs PHI prediction for July 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 6.5 - PIT 6.3. PHI is favored with a 53.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 12.8 total runs.
PHI
6.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
PIT
6.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHIPIT
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,543 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
468
PHI
568
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bubba Chandler R
PIT
FF49%98 mph18% whiff
CH17%92 mph27% whiff
SL16%90 mph36% whiff
Cristopher Sánchez L
PHI
SI43%95 mph10% whiff
CH38%87 mph42% whiff
SL18%86 mph40% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
98°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.006 Total: 1.000
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
4.50ERA
4.23FIP
9.39K/9
4.70BB/9
1.41WHIP
PHI
4.19ERA
3.22FIP
10.30K/9
3.17BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-45.9% EV
-123
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+41.6% EV
+102
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-35.8% EV
-192
ML HOME
-5.8% EV
-135
NRFI YRFI
+4.9% EV
-115
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+1.7% EV
+158
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
3.4 runs
40.2% win
PHI F5
3.9 runs
48.6% win
F5 Total
7.3
NRFI
40.5%
YRFI
59.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.40
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.9
Over 0.5 HR
98%
Over 1.5 HR
89%
No HR
2%
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.319 | Barrel: 18.2% | vs Bubba Chandler | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryce Harper PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.301 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Bubba Chandler | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Brandon Marsh PHI24.1%
ISO: 0.182 | Barrel: 8.5% | vs Bubba Chandler | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bubba Chandler
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Cristopher Sánchez
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT8 injured
Jared Jones SPDAY-TO-DAY
Spencer Horwitz 1B10-DAY-IL
Oneil Cruz CF10-DAY-IL
Wilber Dotel RP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Mitch Jebb LFDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
PHI8 injured
Brad Keller RP15-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
Liover Peguero SSDAY-TO-DAY
Andrew Walling RPDAY-TO-DAY
Carson DeMartini SSDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 53.7%
+1.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+1.7 pts
Total
8.5
+41.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →