PIT vs SF prediction for May 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 2.6 - PIT 3.0. PIT is favored with a 54.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 5.6 total runs.
SF
2.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
PIT
3.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFPIT
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
135
SF
135
Projected
SF 2.6 — PIT 3.0
Actual
SF 5 — PIT 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Carmen Mlodzinski R
PIT
FS28%85 mph33% whiff
FF27%95 mph16% whiff
SI20%94 mph2% whiff
R TBD
SF
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
57°F17 mph wind
HR: 0.930 Total: 0.958
14mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
4.03ERA
3.95FIP
9.39K/9
4.29BB/9
1.32WHIP
SF
3.37ERA
4.09FIP
8.33K/9
4.73BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-46.8% EV
-196
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-41.8% EV
-115
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+34.3% EV
-105
F5 UNDER 3.5
+32.2% EV
+116
F5_ML HOME
-17.4% EV
-118
NRFI NRFI
+14.5% EV
-130
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
1.6 runs
43.0% win
SF F5
1.3 runs
31.7% win
F5 Total
2.9
NRFI
68.4%
YRFI
31.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.56
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.2
Over 0.5 HR
69%
Over 1.5 HR
34%
No HR
31%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Carmen Mlodzinski
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT8 injured
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Chris Devenski RP15-DAY-IL
Jared Jones SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Mangum LFDAY-TO-DAY
Oddanier Mosqueda RPDAY-TO-DAY
Mike Clevinger RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
SF8 injured
Logan Webb SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Luis Arraez 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Rowan Wick RP60-DAY-IL
Sam Hentges RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2RED ZONE43.4% WR (n=223)
HOME PITCHER TBD creates maximum uncertainty. Model generates massive UNDER edge (+34.3%, 68.9% model at 5.63 total vs market 7.5) but edge is unreliable without knowing SF's starting pitcher. Away pitcher Mlodzinski (5.14 ERA, B- grade) is baseline, but TBD home arm could be elite ace (reframes game) or bullpen game (inflates uncertainty). Extreme weather (14mph wind IN, 57.3F, Oracle marine layer 0.958 multiplier = worst weather on slate) supports under fundamentally, but TBD SP overrides rational edge.
Key Factors
- TBD HOME PITCHER: No Bayesian ERA or profile data; model assignment unreliable without pitcher-specific stats
- Away pitcher baseline: Mlodzinski 5.14 ERA (B-, 25.9% K), acceptable arm but not elite
- Extreme weather convergence: 14mph wind IN (strongest on slate) + 57.3F + Oracle marine layer (0.88 factor) = 0.958 total multiplier = removes 0.3-0.4 runs from baseline
- First 5 UNDER dominant: +32.2% edge (61.2% model) suggests early-inning quiet is real regardless of home SP
- Oracle Park suppression structural: 0.88 factor + marine layer = most suppressive yard on slate
Risk Factors
- TBD pitcher = uninformative model edge; could be dominant arm (inverts edge), weak arm (confirms edge), or bullpen game (maximum volatility)
- RED zone UNDER (43.4% WR) on highest edge of slate (+34.3%) = paradox of overconfidence; edge cap warning
- Market may have insider information on SF pitcher (if public announcement not yet processed by model)
TBD PITCHERDATA INTEGRITY FAILUREEXTREME WEATHERRED ZONE UNDERHIGHEST EDGE PARADOXSKIP HARD BLOCK
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 54.7%
-46.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-46.8 pts
Total
7.5
+34.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →