PIT vs SF prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 2.4 - PIT 3.2. PIT is favored with a 58.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 5.6 total runs.
SF
2.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
PIT
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFPIT
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
135
SF
024
Projected
SF 2.4 — PIT 3.2
Actual
SF 3 — PIT 13
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Braxton Ashcraft R
PIT
FF32%97 mph13% whiff
CU28%85 mph46% whiff
SL18%92 mph38% whiff
Landen Roupp R
SF
SI39%93 mph10% whiff
CU29%76 mph31% whiff
CH18%87 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
60°F18 mph wind
HR: 0.931 Total: 0.958
15mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
4.16ERA
3.90FIP
9.50K/9
4.23BB/9
1.34WHIP
SF
3.36ERA
4.13FIP
8.20K/9
4.84BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-49.8% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 7.0
-42.2% EV
-122
F5 UNDER 3.5
+23.5% EV
-102
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
+20.5% EV
+100
F5_ML HOME
-20.5% EV
-108
ML HOME
-15.7% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
1.7 runs
46.5% win
SF F5
1.1 runs
29.1% win
F5 Total
2.8
NRFI
68.8%
YRFI
31.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.55
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.2
Over 0.5 HR
68%
Over 1.5 HR
32%
No HR
32%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Braxton Ashcraft
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Landen Roupp
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT8 injured
Jake Mangum LF10-DAY-IL
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Chris Devenski RP15-DAY-IL
Jared Jones SP60-DAY-IL
Oddanier Mosqueda RPDAY-TO-DAY
Mike Clevinger RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
SF8 injured
Logan Webb SP15-DAY-IL
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Rowan Wick RP60-DAY-IL
Sam Hentges RP15-DAY-IL
Erik Miller RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.6% WR (n=244)
Model projects 5.58 total runs, market prices 7.0. The 20.5% UNDER edge (60.2% model prob) is driven by cold weather (59.6F, 15mph wind blowing in at Oracle), weak Roupp pitching (3.43 ERA, 26.9% K, B- grade), and Ashcraft's solid arm (3.26 ERA, 27.3% K, B grade). Oracle's 0.88 park factor + marine layer cold = run suppression. Both teams have weak offenses on paper.
Key Factors
- UNDER edge 20.5%: Model 5.58 total vs market 7.0 = 1.42 run gap. Third-largest UNDER edge today.
- Weather extreme: 59.6F, 15mph wind in (net -2.0 total runs vs baseline). Oracle marine layer effect amplified.
- Park factor: Oracle 0.88 (12% run suppression). Combined with wind = major under support.
- Pitcher quality: Roupp (3.43 ERA, 26.9% K, B- grade) vs Ashcraft (3.26 ERA, 27.3% K, B grade). Both solid, even match.
- UNDER DISABLED: Calibration grade F. Severe warning.
Risk Factors
- UNDER is auto-disabled (grade F). Model likely systematically wrong on totals.
- Late-night game (01:06 UTC, 6:06pm PT) means visibility/pitcher fatigue effects unknown.
- Both teams' offenses potentially weak, but no lineup data available.
WEATHER IMPACTTOTALS VALUEPARK FACTOR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 58.6%
-49.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-49.8 pts
Total
7.0
+20.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →