PIT vs SF prediction for May 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 3.1 - PIT 2.9. SF is favored with a 52.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.0 total runs.
SF
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
PIT
2.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFPIT
-1.5
Run Line (SF)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
135
SF
135
Projected
SF 3.1 — PIT 2.9
Actual
SF 7 — PIT 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bubba Chandler R
PIT
FF54%99 mph20% whiff
CH20%92 mph28% whiff
SL14%90 mph25% whiff
Tyler Mahle R
SF
FF48%92 mph19% whiff
FS26%85 mph23% whiff
FC15%88 mph6% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
67°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.971 Total: 0.982
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
4.23ERA
3.96FIP
9.44K/9
4.35BB/9
1.35WHIP
SF
3.69ERA
4.09FIP
8.10K/9
4.80BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-45.1% EV
-118
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-43.2% EV
-196
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+28.6% EV
-104
F5 UNDER 4.5
+19.1% EV
-122
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-12.1% EV
+162
NRFI NRFI
+8.1% EV
-130
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
1.7 runs
37.8% win
SF F5
1.8 runs
40.9% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
63.7%
YRFI
36.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.68
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
80%
Over 1.5 HR
49%
No HR
20%
Brandon Lowe PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.376 | Barrel: 18.2% | vs Tyler Mahle | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Oneil Cruz PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.171 | Barrel: 11.9% | vs Tyler Mahle | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Casey Schmitt SF30.0%
ISO: 0.275 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs Bubba Chandler | Park: 0.88x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bubba Chandler
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Tyler Mahle
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT8 injured
Jake Mangum LF10-DAY-IL
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Chris Devenski RP15-DAY-IL
Jared Jones SP60-DAY-IL
Oddanier Mosqueda RPDAY-TO-DAY
Mike Clevinger RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
SF8 injured
Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL
Logan Webb SP15-DAY-IL
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Rowan Wick RP60-DAY-IL
Erik Miller RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE50.5% WR (n=243)
Both SPs are mediocre (C+ grade, 5.4 and 5.1 ERA respectively). Oracle Park's notorious suppression (0.88 park factor, -12% runs) and cold/windy conditions explain low model total (6.03). Market total 8.0 is likely too high for Oracle. However, totals are disabled due to poor historical performance (50% WR). UNDER edge 28.6% is real but YELLOW zone forbids betting.
Key Factors
- Both pitchers mediocre: Mahle 5.40 ERA, Chandler 5.14 ERA (C+ grade). Coin-flip pitching; no advantage.
- Oracle Park legendary suppression: 0.88 park factor = ~1.2 run reduction. Model 6.03 total is reasonable.
- Cold 66.7°F + marine layer + 9 mph wind IN = typical Oracle conditions (suppresses runs)
- UNDER 8.0: 28.6% edge with 65.6% model prob, but YELLOW zone (50.5% WR) with totals disabled. Historical failure rate on high-edge unders.
Risk Factors
- Oracle suppression is real, but totals are systematically overestimated edge (50% WR despite apparent advantages)
- Market at 8.0 may reflect fear of SF lineup (decent bats) vs PIT bullpen uncertainty
- Risk of market not respecting Oracle suppression; game could go over despite low model total
PARK FACTORMEDIOCRE PITCHINGTOTALS FORBIDDEN
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SF 52.7%
-12.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-12.1 pts
Total
8.0
+28.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →