PIT vs STL prediction for May 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 3.6 - PIT 3.3. STL is favored with a 54.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.9 total runs.
STL
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
PIT
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLPIT
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.0% (2,186 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
135
STL
246
Projected
STL 3.6 — PIT 3.3
Actual
STL 9 — PIT 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Mitch Keller R
PIT
FF34%94 mph16% whiff
ST18%82 mph22% whiff
SI18%92 mph14% whiff
Matthew Liberatore L
STL
FF33%94 mph9% whiff
SL25%86 mph35% whiff
CH16%89 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
75°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.019 Total: 1.008
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
4.30ERA
4.09FIP
9.05K/9
4.33BB/9
1.39WHIP
STL
4.45ERA
4.51FIP
7.99K/9
4.62BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-35.5% EV
-200
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-31.8% EV
-106
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-19.0% EV
+164
F5 UNDER 4.5
+17.0% EV
-120
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+11.8% EV
-114
NRFI NRFI
+9.2% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
1.7 runs
37.3% win
STL F5
1.9 runs
42.1% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
64.1%
YRFI
35.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.68
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
61%
No HR
13%
Brandon Lowe PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.196 | Barrel: 17.5% | vs Matthew Liberatore | Park: 0.98x
Bryan Reynolds PIT23.3%
ISO: 0.155 | Barrel: 6.7% | vs Matthew Liberatore | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Jordan Walker STL22.6%
ISO: 0.265 | Barrel: 16.3% | vs Mitch Keller | Park: 0.98x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Mitch Keller
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Matthew Liberatore
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT8 injured
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Jared Jones SP60-DAY-IL
Joey Bart C10-DAY-IL
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Chris Devenski RP15-DAY-IL
Oddanier Mosqueda RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
STL8 injured
Masyn Winn SSDAY-TO-DAY
Ramon Urias 3B10-DAY-IL
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 54.5%
-35.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-35.5 pts
Total
8.0
+11.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →