PIT vs STL prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 3.4 - PIT 3.9. PIT is favored with a 53.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
STL
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
PIT
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLPIT
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.3% (2,197 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
246
STL
135
Projected
STL 3.4 — PIT 3.9
Actual
STL 0 — PIT 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Carmen Mlodzinski R
PIT
FS28%85 mph30% whiff
FF26%95 mph16% whiff
SI22%94 mph2% whiff
Michael McGreevy R
STL
FF24%91 mph9% whiff
CH20%86 mph32% whiff
SI17%90 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
68°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.036 Total: 1.019
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
4.32ERA
4.24FIP
9.10K/9
4.41BB/9
1.39WHIP
STL
4.42ERA
4.49FIP
7.93K/9
4.57BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-44.3% EV
-204
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-17.8% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-17.1% EV
-122
ML HOME
-12.3% EV
-116
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+9.3% EV
-105
F5 UNDER 4.5
+8.0% EV
-141
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
2.1 runs
45.7% win
STL F5
1.7 runs
35.0% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
62.3%
YRFI
37.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.73
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
61%
No HR
13%
Brandon Lowe PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.342 | Barrel: 16.9% | vs Michael McGreevy | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Oneil Cruz PIT28.4%
ISO: 0.192 | Barrel: 11.6% | vs Michael McGreevy | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Spencer Horwitz PIT21.7%
ISO: 0.159 | Barrel: 7.0% | vs Michael McGreevy | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Carmen Mlodzinski
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Michael McGreevy
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT8 injured
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Jared Jones SP60-DAY-IL
Joey Bart C10-DAY-IL
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Chris Devenski RP15-DAY-IL
Oddanier Mosqueda RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
STL7 injured
Ramon Urias 3B10-DAY-IL
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 53.9%
-44.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-44.3 pts
Total
7.5
+9.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →