PIT vs STL prediction for May 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 3.6 - PIT 3.8. STL is favored with a 52.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.4 total runs.
STL
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
PIT
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLPIT
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.7% (2,221 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
246
STL
246
Projected
STL 3.6 — PIT 3.8
Actual
STL 2 — PIT 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Braxton Ashcraft R
PIT
FF32%97 mph13% whiff
CU26%85 mph40% whiff
SL20%92 mph38% whiff
Dustin May R
STL
FF27%97 mph13% whiff
FC22%94 mph18% whiff
ST18%86 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
67°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.049 Total: 1.027
6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
4.22ERA
4.20FIP
9.15K/9
4.36BB/9
1.37WHIP
STL
4.52ERA
4.43FIP
8.00K/9
4.57BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-38.1% EV
-172
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-14.7% EV
+142
ML AWAY
-11.6% EV
-122
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-10.9% EV
+102
F5 UNDER 3.5
+8.6% EV
+112
F5_ML AWAY
-8.4% EV
-132
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
1.9 runs
41.4% win
STL F5
1.8 runs
39.2% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
58.8%
YRFI
41.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.79
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.5
Over 0.5 HR
76%
Over 1.5 HR
43%
No HR
24%
Brandon Lowe PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.339 | Barrel: 16.8% | vs Dustin May | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Oneil Cruz PIT18.5%
ISO: 0.188 | Barrel: 11.4% | vs Dustin May | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Jordan Walker STL16.3%
ISO: 0.254 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Braxton Ashcraft | Park: 0.98x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Braxton Ashcraft
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Dustin May
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT8 injured
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Jared Jones SP60-DAY-IL
Joey Bart C10-DAY-IL
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Chris Devenski RP15-DAY-IL
Oddanier Mosqueda RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
STL8 injured
Nathan Church LFDAY-TO-DAY
Ramon Urias 3B10-DAY-IL
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE55.2% WR (n=5)
Model shows +4.9% STL home ML edge with GREEN zone support (home ML 59.3% WR), but Ashcraft's 25.6% K-rate and B-grade stuff significantly outmatches May's 16.8% K-rate and C+ grade, creating a pitcher-quality contradiction that the model is underweighting due to home field.
Key Factors
- Home field advantage: STL 52.4% vs PIT 47.6% (4.8pt home boost, standard for MLB)
- PITCHER QUALITY MISMATCH: Ashcraft 25.6% K-rate (B), May 16.8% K-rate (C+) — 8.8% K gap favors away
- Bullpen parity: STL 4.52 ERA, PIT 4.22 ERA (both below average, no advantage)
- F5 UNDER edge +8.6% suggests low-scoring early innings — both SPs likely to induce weak contact
Risk Factors
- Pitcher quality gap not fully reflected in model probability — Ashcraft should have more impact than 4.9% swing
- Edge below calibration min (4.9% vs 8%) — not cleared for standard bet
- Small sample GREEN zone (n=5 tight, expanding to 74 combo) — zone may not be as reliable as larger samples
PITCHER MISMATCHGREEN ZONESHARP SUPPORTYELLOW ZONELOW CONFIDENCE EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 52.4%
-38.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-38.1 pts
Total
7.5
+1.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →