PIT vs TOR prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 3.2 - PIT 3.5. PIT is favored with a 51.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.7 total runs.
TOR
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
PIT
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORPIT
-1.5
Run Line (TOR)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
245
TOR
135
Projected
TOR 3.2 — PIT 3.5
Actual
TOR 1 — PIT 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Mitch Keller R
PIT
FF34%94 mph15% whiff
ST18%82 mph21% whiff
SI17%92 mph13% whiff
Dylan Cease R
TOR
FF35%98 mph24% whiff
SL30%89 mph45% whiff
CH11%84 mph58% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
53°F5 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.028 Total: 1.017
5mph out
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
4.31ERA
4.21FIP
9.24K/9
4.41BB/9
1.38WHIP
TOR
3.34ERA
3.13FIP
10.28K/9
3.44BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-33.5% EV
-161
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-25.3% EV
-110
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-24.5% EV
+134
F5_ML HOME
-21.5% EV
-167
F5_ML AWAY
+19.1% EV
+134
ML HOME
-18.9% EV
-164
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
1.8 runs
42.6% win
TOR F5
1.6 runs
35.5% win
F5 Total
3.4
NRFI
65.1%
YRFI
34.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.67
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.1
Over 0.5 HR
66%
Over 1.5 HR
29%
No HR
34%
Brandon Lowe PIT28.3%
ISO: 0.341 | Barrel: 16.9% | vs Dylan Cease | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Kazuma Okamoto TOR12.0%
ISO: 0.219 | Barrel: 11.0% | vs Mitch Keller | Park: 1.01x
George Springer TOR11.9%
ISO: 0.160 | Barrel: 8.6% | vs Mitch Keller | Park: 1.01x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Mitch Keller
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Dylan Cease
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT8 injured
Chris Devenski RP15-DAY-IL
Jared Jones SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Joey Bart C10-DAY-IL
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Oddanier Mosqueda RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Alejandro Kirk C10-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Nathan Lukes RF10-DAY-IL
Shane Bieber SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Model leans PIT away (18.2% ML edge) but away ML is chronic historically weak; ceiling breaker is TOR SP Cease listed as DAY-TO-DAY with hamstring — availability unclear pre-game.
Key Factors
- PIT SP Keller: 6.3 K/9, 0.068 BB%, low-end starter quality (C+ grade) vs Cease (8.0 K/9, 10.4% BB%)
- Away ML historically weak: a supportive track record — this niche consistently underperforms
- Under 7.5 edge: +16.3% (model 60.9%) — more actionable than ML if staying in game, but totals market is disabled (F grade)
- Cold temps (52.6F, retractable roof at Rogers Centre) suppress scoring by ~0.5 runs
- TOR SP availability: Cease hamstring DAY-TO-DAY creates data integrity risk
Risk Factors
- Away ML edge is historically weak historical failure niche (a supportive track record on away ML) — do not bet this side
- Model overestimates away underdog value consistently; 18.2% edge is likely inflated 2-3%
- If Cease unavailable, model prediction completely fails (predicts 2.5 TOR runs but would be 1.5 vs bullpen)
DATA INTEGRITYTBD PITCHER
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 51.9%
-24.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-24.5 pts
Total
7.5
+16.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →