SD vs BAL prediction for June 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 6.1 - SD 4.4. BAL is favored with a 62.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 10.5 total runs.
BAL
6.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
SD
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALSD
-1.5
Run Line (BAL)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.3% (2,305 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
246
BAL
468
Projected
BAL 6.1 — SD 4.4
Actual
BAL 7 — SD 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Griffin Canning R
SD
CH27%90 mph24% whiff
FF25%94 mph22% whiff
SL23%87 mph36% whiff
Shane Baz R
BAL
FF33%96 mph13% whiff
KC33%85 mph27% whiff
FC18%90 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
92°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.007 Total: 1.001
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SD
3.25ERA
3.71FIP
8.45K/9
3.48BB/9
1.23WHIP
BAL
4.37ERA
3.85FIP
8.83K/9
3.45BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-48.4% EV
-189
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+21.9% EV
+155
F5_ML AWAY
-21.2% EV
+118
ML AWAY
-18.7% EV
+110
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-9.4% EV
-122
ML HOME
+8.5% EV
-130
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
2.4 runs
29.8% win
BAL F5
3.8 runs
58.5% win
F5 Total
6.2
NRFI
49.9%
YRFI
50.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.18
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.2
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
82%
No HR
4%
Gavin Sheets SD30.0%
ISO: 0.257 | Barrel: 12.6% | vs Shane Baz | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Manny Machado SD30.0%
ISO: 0.156 | Barrel: 8.6% | vs Shane Baz | Park: 1.03x
Adley Rutschman BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.252 | Barrel: 11.2% | vs Griffin Canning | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Griffin Canning
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Shane Baz
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Miguel Andujar DHDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Jake Cronenworth 2B7-DAY IL
Ramon Laureano LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Dean Kremer SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP15-DAY-IL
Yaramil Hiraldo RP60-DAY-IL
Cade Povich SP15-DAY-IL
Jhonkensy Noel RFDAY-TO-DAY
Chris Bassitt SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE55.1% WR (n=5)
Home favorite BAL favored by model 62.9% vs market 56.5% (8.5% ML edge). Shane Baz (4.42 ERA, B-grade) beats Griffin Canning (6.85 ERA, C+ grade) with 2.43 ERA gap. Home field + pitcher advantage + favorable run environment (91.9F heat factor 1.007 multiplier) all align. Market underestimating home edge.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch substantial: Baz 4.42 ERA vs Canning 6.85 ERA (2.43-point gap, classic B vs C+ grade duel)
- Home ML edge +8.5% is within calibrated sweet spot (5-10% edge range posts 75% WR historically) — actionable and not overconfident
- F5 edge aligned: +5.9% (52.9% model) confirms early scoring leverage; warm weather (91.9F) adds ~0.3-0.5 run environment bonus
Risk Factors
- Market pricing seems reasonable at -129 odds (56.5% implied) — edge is moderate, not dramatic; model edge could contain unseen SD depth advantages
- Run line (home -1.5) only 21.9% edge (model 47.8%) — run line market doesn't trust margin, prefer ML
PITCHER MISMATCHHOME GREEN ZONEWARM WEATHERF5 SUPPORT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 62.9%
+21.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+21.9 pts
Total
9.5
+0.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →