SD vs BAL prediction for June 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 6.1 - SD 4.3. BAL is favored with a 64.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.0. Model projects 10.4 total runs.
BAL
6.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.0
SD
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALSD
+1.5
Run Line (BAL)
10.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.1% (2,321 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
246
BAL
468
Projected
BAL 6.1 — SD 4.3
Actual
BAL 3 — SD 9
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Randy Vásquez R
SD
FF30%95 mph19% whiff
FC24%90 mph20% whiff
SI14%95 mph11% whiff
Trey Gibson R
BAL
SI28%95 mph8% whiff
FC24%91 mph18% whiff
SL19%88 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
90°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.013 Total: 1.005
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SD
3.20ERA
3.70FIP
8.53K/9
3.51BB/9
1.24WHIP
BAL
4.30ERA
3.81FIP
8.87K/9
3.43BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-33.9% EV
+152
F5_ML AWAY
-25.0% EV
+104
ML AWAY
-24.2% EV
+100
ML HOME
+14.8% EV
-118
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-14.6% EV
-185
F5_ML HOME
+11.9% EV
-130
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
2.4 runs
30.0% win
BAL F5
3.8 runs
59.3% win
F5 Total
6.2
NRFI
48.8%
YRFI
51.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.22
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.3
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
84%
No HR
4%
Gavin Sheets SD30.0%
ISO: 0.258 | Barrel: 12.6% | vs Trey Gibson | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Manny Machado SD30.0%
ISO: 0.158 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Trey Gibson | Park: 1.03x
Samuel Basallo BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.272 | Barrel: 12.6% | vs Randy Vásquez | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Randy Vásquez
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Trey Gibson
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Miguel Andujar DHDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Jake Cronenworth 2B7-DAY IL
Ramon Laureano LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Dean Kremer SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP15-DAY-IL
Yaramil Hiraldo RP60-DAY-IL
Cade Povich SP15-DAY-IL
Jhonkensy Noel RFDAY-TO-DAY
Chris Bassitt SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1GREEN ZONE56.6% WR (n=96)
Baltimore ML at 14.8% edge seems large but is supported by legitimate pitcher mismatch (Trey Gibson 4.58 ERA, D-grade stuff vs Randy Vásquez 3.92 ERA solid starter) and home-field advantage (GREEN zone 56.6% WR). However, 14.8% edge is at-or-above overconfidence threshold; cap at 0.75 unit position to guard against model inflation.
Key Factors
- SP quality gap: Gibson 4.58 ERA, C- grade overall (stuff score 0.0—bottom tier), K-rate only 6.8% = contact pitcher; Vásquez 3.92 ERA, B- grade (stuff 0.247 C-tier) with 18.3% K-rate. Massive gap favors home pitcher.
- Home ML GREEN zone: 56.6% WR across 96 tracked bets—this game profile exactly matches that win zone
- Market misprices Gibson's weakness; 3.92 vs 4.58 ERA shows market only values ~1 run difference, but the D-grade stuff suggests larger true gap
- Park factor 1.03 (Great American Ball Park = slight run boost, historic HR advantage) helps Baltimore slightly
- Temperature 90.4F boosts scoring; wind 7.2 mph in reduces slightly (~0.2 runs)
Risk Factors
- 14.8% edge is HIGH_EDGE territory: recent 30-day data shows 10-15% ML edges at 44.4% WR (n=9)—this is a FALSE CONFIDENCE signal
- Gibson may have improved since ERA assessment; 4.58 could be on tail end of recent decline (small-sample variance)
- San Diego bullpen depth could overcome starter disadvantage in late innings
PITCHER MISMATCHGREEN ZONEHIGH EDGE WARNINGHOME FIELD
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 64.4%
-14.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-14.6 pts
Total
10.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →