Who is predicted to win SD vs BAL on June 14, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, BAL is favored with a 55.8% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is BAL 5.7 - SD 5.1.

How did SD vs BAL on June 14, 2026 end?

Final score: BAL 2 - SD 5. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

SD vs BAL Prediction & Picks — June 14, 2026

SD vs BAL prediction for June 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 5.7 - SD 5.1. BAL is favored with a 55.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 10.0. Model projects 10.8 total runs.

BAL

5.7

Projected Score

VS O/U 10.0

5.1

Projected Score

Win Probability

55.8%

44.2%

BALSD

-1.5

Run Line (BAL)

10.0

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.2% (2,331 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

357

BAL

468

Projected

BAL 5.7 — SD 5.1

Actual

BAL 2 — SD 5

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Walker Buehler R

FC24%90 mph17% whiff

FF20%94 mph6% whiff

SI17%94 mph3% whiff

Trevor Rogers L

BAL

FF42%93 mph18% whiff

CH22%87 mph22% whiff

SI13%93 mph10% whiff

Weather Impact

Oriole Park at Camden Yards

92°F10 mph wind

HR: 1.003 Total: 0.998

thin air, 7mph in

Bullpen Comparison

3.19ERA

3.70FIP

8.47K/9

3.49BB/9

1.24WHIP

BAL

4.32ERA

3.96FIP

8.75K/9

3.41BB/9

1.30WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5

-38.6% EV

-179

TOTAL UNDER 10.0

-10.7% EV

-105

F5_ML AWAY

-6.6% EV

+112

ML AWAY

-5.9% EV

+112

F5_ML HOME

-4.3% EV

-141

RUN_LINE HOME -1.5

+2.1% EV

+146

First 5 Innings & NRFI

SD F5

2.9 runs

38.7% win

BAL F5

3.4 runs

49.4% win

F5 Total

6.2

NRFI

46.8%

YRFI

53.2%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

1.26

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

3.2

Over 0.5 HR

95%

Over 1.5 HR

81%

No HR

Manny Machado SD30.0%

ISO: 0.238 | Barrel: 9.3% | vs Trevor Rogers | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x

Rodolfo Durán SD30.0%

ISO: 0.135 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs Trevor Rogers | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x

Pete Alonso BAL30.0%

ISO: 0.252 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Walker Buehler | Park: 1.03x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Walker Buehler

0.0 K projected

SD | K/9: 0.0

Trevor Rogers

0.0 K projected

BAL | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

SD8 injured

Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL

Luis Campusano C10-DAY-IL

Xander Bogaerts SSDAY-TO-DAY

Freddy Fermin CDAY-TO-DAY

Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL

Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL

+2 more

BAL8 injured

Dylan Beavers RF10-DAY-IL

Ryan Helsley RP15-DAY-IL

Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL

Dean Kremer SP60-DAY-IL

Yaramil Hiraldo RP60-DAY-IL

Cade Povich SP15-DAY-IL

+2 more

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

BAL 55.8%

+2.1 pts

Run Line