SD vs BOS prediction for April 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 4.7 - SD 5.9. SD is favored with a 57.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.7 total runs.
BOS
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SD
5.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSSD
+1.5
Run Line (BOS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SD W4BOS L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
468
BOS
357
Pick Results
Sonny Gray OVER 4.5 Ksk_propsLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael King R
SD
SI28%93 mph15% whiff
FF23%94 mph31% whiff
CH21%87 mph26% whiff
Sonny Gray R
BOS
FF21%92 mph17% whiff
ST19%85 mph42% whiff
SI19%92 mph13% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
48°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.970 Total: 0.983
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SD
2.86ERA
3.33FIP
9.54K/9
3.40BB/9
1.09WHIP
BOS
3.90ERA
3.79FIP
9.84K/9
5.79BB/9
1.39WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-44.5% EV
-200
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-27.8% EV
-110
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+21.0% EV
-110
ML HOME
-17.1% EV
-122
F5_ML HOME
-15.6% EV
-128
ML AWAY
+13.1% EV
+104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
3.0 runs
46.3% win
BOS F5
2.5 runs
37.2% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
56.5%
YRFI
43.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.90
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
9%
Wilyer Abreu BOS23.3%
ISO: 0.237 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Michael King | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Manny Machado SD20.3%
ISO: 0.164 | Barrel: 5.2% | vs Sonny Gray | Park: 1.08x
Jackson Merrill SD18.6%
ISO: 0.226 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs Sonny Gray | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Michael King
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Sonny Gray
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Griffin Canning SP15-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP15-DAY-IL
Sung-Mun Song 3B10-DAY-IL
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
Yu Darvish SPOUT
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Johan Oviedo SP15-DAY-IL
Garrett Whitlock RPPATERNITY
Kutter Crawford SP15-DAY-IL
Triston Casas 1B10-DAY-IL
Patrick Sandoval SP15-DAY-IL
Brendan Rodgers 2BOUT
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE48.7% WR (n=256)
Michael King (SD TBD pitcher) arrives as solid B- starter (0.0 ERA, likely fresh). Sonny Gray (BOS, 7.29 ERA) is catastrophically bad at home. Away underdog ML has 13.1% edge despite historical underdog underperformance — this is one case where the mismatch justifies it.
Key Factors
- Gray is ATROCIOUS: 7.29 ERA at Fenway. King is B- grade with 0.0 ERA (unknown track record but fresh). Pitcher mismatch heavily favors away.
- Cold weather (48.5F, 7.3mph wind neutral) doesn't heavily suppress — typical spring conditions.
- OVER edge 21% (model 63.4% vs 42.1% market). This is meaningful but not extreme for a total.
- Away ML edge 13.1% is within 10-15% GREEN zone (56.4% WR historically) — better than 15%+ traps.
Risk Factors
- Away underdog ML combos historically win only 38.7% (20W-32L). Edge 13.1% doesn't overcome this headwind.
- King's 0.0 ERA could indicate new starter or limited sample — performance unknown.
- Fenway is a power hitter's park. If BOS gets early runs, momentum shifts quickly.
PITCHER MISMATCHAWAY VALUETBD PITCHER
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SD 57.6%
-44.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-44.5 pts
Total
8.5
+21.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →