SD vs CHC prediction for July 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 6.8 - SD 4.9. CHC is favored with a 66.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 11.5. Model projects 11.8 total runs.
CHC
6.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 11.5
SD
4.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCSD
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
11.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.5% (2,543 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
357
CHC
579
Starting Pitcher Matchup
JP Sears L
SD
FF40%92 mph16% whiff
ST27%79 mph23% whiff
CH15%84 mph18% whiff
Matthew Boyd L
CHC
FF50%93 mph20% whiff
CH28%79 mph33% whiff
SL13%84 mph48% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
97°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.002 Total: 0.998
thin air, 10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SD
3.15ERA
3.66FIP
8.41K/9
3.44BB/9
1.23WHIP
CHC
4.04ERA
5.13FIP
8.17K/9
4.04BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-49.0% EV
-182
ML AWAY
-25.4% EV
+104
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+22.8% EV
+150
ML HOME
+15.4% EV
-122
TOTAL OVER 11.5
-9.2% EV
-114
TOTAL UNDER 11.5
+0.3% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
3.0 runs
33.5% win
CHC F5
4.2 runs
55.2% win
F5 Total
7.2
NRFI
42.7%
YRFI
57.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.35
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.7
Over 0.5 HR
97%
Over 1.5 HR
88%
No HR
3%
Manny Machado SD30.0%
ISO: 0.226 | Barrel: 9.0% | vs Matthew Boyd | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Ty France SD30.0%
ISO: 0.160 | Barrel: 10.0% | vs Matthew Boyd | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Ian Happ CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.192 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs JP Sears | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
JP Sears
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Matthew Boyd
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SD8 injured
David Morgan RP15-DAY-IL
Luis Campusano C10-DAY-IL
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Ethan Roberts RP15-DAY-IL
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
Daniel Palencia RP15-DAY-IL
Hoby Milner RP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 66.9%
+22.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+22.8 pts
Total
11.5
+0.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →