SD vs MIL prediction for May 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 3.2 - SD 3.1. MIL is favored with a 53.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.3 total runs.
MIL
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SD
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILSD
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
135
MIL
135
Projected
MIL 3.2 — SD 3.1
Actual
MIL 6 — SD 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bradgley Rodriguez R
SD
CH44%89 mph44% whiff
SI25%98 mph12% whiff
FF20%98 mph15% whiff
Brandon Sproat R
MIL
SI27%97 mph11% whiff
FC26%94 mph17% whiff
CU15%83 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
72°F21 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.932 Total: 0.958
thin air, 20mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SD
3.89ERA
3.65FIP
8.15K/9
3.41BB/9
1.26WHIP
MIL
3.45ERA
3.14FIP
9.53K/9
4.13BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-41.3% EV
-120
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-40.0% EV
-161
F5 UNDER 4.5
+35.1% EV
+102
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+34.5% EV
-102
NRFI NRFI
+17.7% EV
-111
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-17.1% EV
+132
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
1.5 runs
36.1% win
MIL F5
1.7 runs
41.7% win
F5 Total
3.2
NRFI
66.1%
YRFI
33.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.65
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
80%
Over 1.5 HR
47%
No HR
20%
Jake Bauers MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.219 | Barrel: 10.0% | vs Bradgley Rodriguez | Platoon: 1.12x
Gavin Sheets SD21.2%
ISO: 0.237 | Barrel: 10.9% | vs Brandon Sproat | Platoon: 1.12x
Brice Turang MIL20.3%
ISO: 0.278 | Barrel: 10.6% | vs Bradgley Rodriguez | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bradgley Rodriguez
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Brandon Sproat
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Yu Darvish SPOUT
Jhony Brito RP60-DAY-IL
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Blake Hunt CDAY-TO-DAY
Jake Cronenworth 2B7-DAY IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIL8 injured
Akil Baddoo LF60-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Lockridge LF10-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 53.8%
-17.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-17.1 pts
Total
8.5
+34.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →