SD vs MIL prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 3.6 - SD 3.6. MIL is favored with a 51.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
MIL
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
SD
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILSD
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SD W4MIL W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
246
MIL
246
Projected
MIL 3.6 — SD 3.6
Actual
MIL 1 — SD 3
Pick Results
Jake Bauers OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsWIN+0.80u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael King R
SD
SI28%93 mph14% whiff
CH27%86 mph29% whiff
ST21%82 mph31% whiff
Jacob Misiorowski R
MIL
FF61%99 mph40% whiff
SL22%95 mph22% whiff
CU14%87 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
57°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.024 Total: 1.013
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SD
3.74ERA
3.54FIP
8.23K/9
3.29BB/9
1.24WHIP
MIL
3.45ERA
3.07FIP
9.76K/9
4.13BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-36.9% EV
-167
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-16.8% EV
+138
TOTAL OVER 7.0
-15.8% EV
-102
ML HOME
-12.7% EV
-156
F5_ML HOME
-12.3% EV
-167
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
-10.9% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
1.9 runs
38.2% win
MIL F5
2.0 runs
43.2% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
63.8%
YRFI
36.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.70
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
53%
No HR
16%
Jake Bauers MIL25.1%
ISO: 0.217 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Michael King | Platoon: 1.12x
Ty France SD22.2%
ISO: 0.333 | Barrel: 15.4% | vs Jacob Misiorowski
Brice Turang MIL17.4%
ISO: 0.280 | Barrel: 10.7% | vs Michael King | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Michael King
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Jacob Misiorowski
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Yu Darvish SPOUT
Jhony Brito RP60-DAY-IL
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Blake Hunt CDAY-TO-DAY
Jake Cronenworth 2B7-DAY IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIL8 injured
Christian Yelich DHDAY-TO-DAY
Akil Baddoo LF60-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Lockridge LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE39.9% WR (n=6)
Jacob Misiorowski (2.65 ERA, A- grade, 37.1% K, elite 0.93 stuff) dominates Michael King (2.98 ERA, B-, moderate stuff 0.494) at home; model projects 51.3% home win probability at -12.7% edge (market over-valuing home), but 8.5% away ML edge (+46.8% model prob) represents the true value play where away underdog has superior pitcher, making SD ML attractive at +131.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch: Misiorowski 2.65 ERA (A- grade, 37.1% K, elite stuff 0.93) vs King 2.98 ERA (B-, moderate stuff 0.494)
- Away ML edge: +8.5% (model 46.8% vs market 43.1%); away underdog has superior pitcher
- Market miscalibration: home favored at -156 (61%) despite clear pitcher disadvantage
- Weather: 57°F neutral, 2 mph out (minimal), park factor 1.0 (neutral); no weather advantage
Risk Factors
- Away ML in RED zone (45.6% WR), caution signal; but edge is +8.5% which is real
- Misiorowski is elite but sample size on his 2.65 ERA is small; could be variance
- Home field advantage historically significant in closer matchups; don't over-leverage
PITCHER MISMATCHAWAY VALUEUNDERDOGRED ZONEMODEST EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 51.3%
-16.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-16.8 pts
Total
7.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →