SD vs MIL prediction for May 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 3.3 - SD 3.0. MIL is favored with a 55.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.3 total runs.
MIL
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SD
3.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILSD
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.5% (2,063 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
135
MIL
135
Projected
MIL 3.3 — SD 3.0
Actual
MIL 7 — SD 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Griffin Canning R
SD
FF34%94 mph17% whiff
SL30%88 mph34% whiff
CH25%90 mph25% whiff
Kyle Harrison L
MIL
FF58%95 mph30% whiff
SV26%82 mph29% whiff
CH13%86 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
60°F9 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.058 Total: 1.033
9mph out
Bullpen Comparison
SD
3.68ERA
3.54FIP
8.11K/9
3.25BB/9
1.23WHIP
MIL
3.59ERA
3.14FIP
9.81K/9
4.13BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-44.3% EV
-185
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-39.0% EV
+102
F5 UNDER 4.5
+17.3% EV
-130
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+17.2% EV
-123
NRFI NRFI
+13.3% EV
-115
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-11.0% EV
+152
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
1.5 runs
33.8% win
MIL F5
1.9 runs
44.9% win
F5 Total
3.4
NRFI
64.0%
YRFI
36.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.67
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.5
Over 0.5 HR
78%
Over 1.5 HR
45%
No HR
22%
Brice Turang MIL27.2%
ISO: 0.268 | Barrel: 10.4% | vs Griffin Canning | Platoon: 1.12x
Manny Machado SD26.1%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 7.6% | vs Kyle Harrison | Platoon: 1.12x
Gary Sánchez MIL21.5%
ISO: 0.137 | Barrel: 13.7% | vs Griffin Canning
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Griffin Canning
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Kyle Harrison
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Yu Darvish SPOUT
Jhony Brito RP60-DAY-IL
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Blake Hunt CDAY-TO-DAY
Jake Cronenworth 2B7-DAY IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIL8 injured
Jacob Misiorowski SPDAY-TO-DAY
Christian Yelich DHDAY-TO-DAY
Akil Baddoo LF60-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL +1YELLOW ZONE50.4% WR (n=250)
Pitcher mismatch (Harrison 2.60 vs Canning 7.29 ERA, 4.69 gap) drives UNDER 8.0 at 17.2% edge. No ML edge but strong totals value. NRFI 13.3% edge and F5 UNDER 17.3% are elite complementary plays. Game resolved MIL 7-1, UNDER hit.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch elite: Harrison (2.60 ERA, 28.9% K, A- grade stuff) vs Canning (7.29 ERA, 22.3% K, B- grade). 4.69 ERA gap.
- UNDER 8.0 edge 17.2% strong (model 6.32 vs market 8.0, 1.68 run gap). This edge in acceptable range for under-themed edge.
- F5 UNDER 4.5 edge 17.3% elite — Harrison's dominance concentrated early; Canning limited to short outing expected.
- NRFI edge 13.3% strong — first-inning pitcher advantage to Harrison's strikeout arsenal.
- Home ML edge -3.0% confirms market correctly priced MIL despite pitcher advantage — no direction leverage, only totals.
Risk Factors
- Canning's 7.29 ERA could indicate recent blowup; if he settles, overs closer. However, K-rate 22.3% suggests lower baseline performance.
- Wind OUT (8.7 mph) and retractable roof closed could boost totals, but pitcher mismatch dominates.
RESOLVED GAMEPITCHER MISMATCHTOTALS VALUEF5 UNDER EDGENRFI VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 55.5%
-11.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-11.0 pts
Total
8.0
+17.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →