SD vs SEA prediction for May 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 3.0 - SD 3.0. SEA is favored with a 51.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 6.0 total runs.
SEA
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
SD
3.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEASD
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.0% (2,085 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
135
SEA
135
Projected
SEA 3.0 — SD 3.0
Actual
SEA 0 — SD 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Randy Vásquez R
SD
FF30%95 mph19% whiff
FC26%90 mph23% whiff
CU14%84 mph21% whiff
Emerson Hancock R
SEA
FF36%95 mph24% whiff
SI24%95 mph8% whiff
ST22%78 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
52°F12 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.941 Total: 0.965
11mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SD
3.64ERA
3.52FIP
8.15K/9
3.32BB/9
1.25WHIP
SEA
2.90ERA
3.53FIP
9.23K/9
3.38BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-41.1% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 7.0
-36.7% EV
-120
F5 UNDER 4.5
+21.8% EV
-139
NRFI NRFI
+16.8% EV
-120
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-14.9% EV
+160
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
+12.3% EV
-102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
1.4 runs
35.7% win
SEA F5
1.6 runs
40.6% win
F5 Total
3.0
NRFI
67.9%
YRFI
32.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.59
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
80%
Over 1.5 HR
48%
No HR
20%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Randy Vásquez
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Emerson Hancock
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SD8 injured
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Yu Darvish SPOUT
Jhony Brito RP60-DAY-IL
Blake Hunt CDAY-TO-DAY
Jake Cronenworth 2B7-DAY IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Cal Raleigh C10-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
Patrick Wisdom 1B10-DAY-IL
Victor Robles RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.4% WR (n=258)
UNDER 7.0 has strong 12.3% edge (56.7% model prob) in YELLOW zone (50.4% WR). Both SPs are quality (Emerson Hancock 3.47 ERA home, Randy Vasquez 3.29 ERA away) supporting low-scoring environment. T-Mobile Park (0.89x park factor, coldest game on slate at 52°F) with 11mph wind blowing IN creates strongest weather suppression of entire day. Cold + suppressionwind = ~1.0 run suppression. Market 7.0 vs model 6.04 gives 12.3% under value. NRFI at 16.8% edge (63.8% model) is even cleaner. This is best under play of the day — both data and weather aligned.
Key Factors
- WEATHER DOMINATES: 52°F (coldest game on slate) + 11mph wind blowing IN (-0.9 to -1.1 runs) + T-Mobile retractable closed = strong suppression. This validates under thesis.
- Park factor suppressive: T-Mobile 0.89x (one of most suppressive parks) amplifies weather effect. Combined ~1.0-1.2 run suppression.
- SP quality both solid: Hancock (3.47 ERA, B-, 26.3% K) is legitimate. Vasquez (3.29 ERA, B-, 22.9% K) is legitimate. Neither soft arm.
- NRFI strong edge: 16.8% edge (63.8% model) on no runs first inning shows early-game supports under thesis. First-inning suppression likely.
- YELLOW zone but ALIGNED SIGNALS: Unlike other YELLOW unders, this one has weather + park + SP quality all pointing same direction. Better conviction.
Risk Factors
- YELLOW zone coin flip (50.4% WR): Long-term these underperform. Even with edge and weather alignment, zone says break-even.
- Cold weather can freeze bats but also freeze ball flight = unpredictable. Extreme conditions = variance.
- Market might respect weather already: 7.0 total for 52°F game shows market has already factored in cold. Not fresh discovery.
YELLOW ZONEWEATHER ALIGNEDPARK FACTOR SUPPORTNRFI EDGEBEST UNDER OF DAY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 51.7%
-14.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-14.9 pts
Total
7.0
+12.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →