SD vs SEA prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 2.5 - SD 2.5. SEA is favored with a 51.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 5.1 total runs.
SEA
2.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
SD
2.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEASD
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.5% (2,114 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
124
SEA
124
Projected
SEA 2.5 — SD 2.5
Actual
SEA 4 — SD 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Walker Buehler R
SD
FC23%90 mph10% whiff
FF19%94 mph8% whiff
KC16%77 mph33% whiff
Logan Gilbert R
SEA
FF31%95 mph15% whiff
SL21%86 mph36% whiff
FS14%81 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
50°F17 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.905 Total: 0.944
17mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SD
3.61ERA
3.53FIP
8.21K/9
3.42BB/9
1.25WHIP
SEA
2.90ERA
3.51FIP
9.08K/9
3.30BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.0
-50.5% EV
-120
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-38.7% EV
-145
F5 UNDER 3.5
+37.8% EV
+110
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
+30.0% EV
-102
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-29.1% EV
+120
ML HOME
-15.3% EV
-172
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
1.2 runs
34.3% win
SEA F5
1.3 runs
38.5% win
F5 Total
2.5
NRFI
73.2%
YRFI
26.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.48
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.2
Over 0.5 HR
71%
Over 1.5 HR
35%
No HR
29%
Luke Raley SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.330 | Barrel: 18.3% | vs Walker Buehler | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Gavin Sheets SD20.1%
ISO: 0.247 | Barrel: 11.2% | vs Logan Gilbert | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Julio Rodríguez SEA15.2%
ISO: 0.098 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Walker Buehler | Park: 0.89x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Walker Buehler
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Logan Gilbert
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Yu Darvish SPOUT
Jhony Brito RP60-DAY-IL
Blake Hunt CDAY-TO-DAY
Jake Cronenworth 2B7-DAY IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Brendan Donovan 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Mitch Garver CDAY-TO-DAY
Cal Raleigh C10-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE0.5% WR (n=263)
ELITE TOTAL UNDER edge: 30.0% (model 65.6% vs market 27% implied under) — strongest edge of entire slate after PHI game. Cold weather (49.8F) + 17mph wind in Seattle suppresses scoring dramatically. Model projects 5.06 total runs vs market 7.0 (1.94 run gap). Logan Gilbert (home, 4.08 ERA) vs Walker Buehler (away, 5.62 ERA) creates mild home advantage, but weather is driver. F5 UNDER edge 37.8% (model 65.6% vs market 28% implied) — exceptional. NRFI elite 13.8% edge (69.4% prob). This is most reliable market mismatch on board.
Key Factors
- EXTREME WEATHER DRIVER: 49.8F + 17mph wind in = massive scoring suppression (~1.0-1.5 runs per model)
- TOTAL UNDER edge 30.0% (model 65.6% vs market 27% implied) — strongest edge of day
- F5 UNDER edge 37.8% (model 65.6% vs market 28% implied) — exceptional early-inning suppression
- SP edge mild: Gilbert (4.08 ERA) vs Buehler (5.62 ERA) — only ~1.5 run home advantage
- NRFI elite 13.8% edge (69.4% prob) — cold suppresses first-inning hitting especially
Risk Factors
- Total market D grade (51.1% WR, -13.6 units) despite high calibration threshold
- 30.0% edge in YELLOW zone (50.4% WR) creates conflict; model overconfident?
- Cold weather can be unpredictable (players adjust, sometimes colder = more HRs due to power swings)
EXTREME WEATHER EDGEELITE TOTAL UNDER EDGECOLD MARINE CONDITIONSF5 UNDER EXCEPTIONALNRFI ELITE EDGEYELLOW ZONE CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 51.1%
-29.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-29.1 pts
Total
7.0
+30.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →