SD vs SEA prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 3.1 - SD 2.9. SEA is favored with a 54.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.0 total runs.
SEA
3.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SD
2.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEASD
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.6% (2,128 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
135
SEA
135
Projected
SEA 3.1 — SD 2.9
Actual
SEA 3 — SD 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Lucas Giolito R
SD
FF48%93 mph14% whiff
SL26%86 mph30% whiff
CH22%82 mph25% whiff
George Kirby R
SEA
FF32%97 mph18% whiff
ST26%87 mph28% whiff
SI20%97 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
61°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.966 Total: 0.980
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SD
3.63ERA
3.52FIP
8.17K/9
3.44BB/9
1.25WHIP
SEA
2.86ERA
3.53FIP
9.01K/9
3.39BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-40.2% EV
-156
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-33.9% EV
-102
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+21.9% EV
-120
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-18.9% EV
+130
F5 UNDER 4.5
+16.6% EV
-152
F5_ML HOME
-10.8% EV
-175
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
1.4 runs
34.3% win
SEA F5
1.7 runs
42.7% win
F5 Total
3.1
NRFI
67.9%
YRFI
32.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.59
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
80%
Over 1.5 HR
47%
No HR
20%
Luke Raley SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.325 | Barrel: 17.7% | vs Lucas Giolito | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Ty France SD26.4%
ISO: 0.319 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs George Kirby | Park: 0.89x
Josh Naylor SEA21.0%
ISO: 0.148 | Barrel: 5.8% | vs Lucas Giolito | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Lucas Giolito
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
George Kirby
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Yu Darvish SPOUT
Jhony Brito RP60-DAY-IL
Blake Hunt CDAY-TO-DAY
Jake Cronenworth 2B7-DAY IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Cal Raleigh C10-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
Patrick Wisdom 1B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 54.0%
-18.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-18.9 pts
Total
7.5
+21.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →